Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET

Equities

U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday as CPI data offset Middle East tensions, while futures earlier pointed higher ahead of the July inflation report. The S&P 500 dipped from records after a tame CPI reading eased rate-hike fears, but AI names rallied. Yardeni raised his S&P 500 target to 8,400, citing "fabulous earnings momentum." Yet strong earnings are starting to worry some investors who see too much good news already priced in. Optical stocks soared as AI spending bets resurfaced, while Cisco reported higher fourth-quarter profit as AI orders rolled in. Foxconn beat profit estimates on booming AI server production. Tencent saw AI spending snuff out its profit-growth run. Intel investors are betting on a comeback as AI mania transforms demand. AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed revenue outlook as its satellite network expands. European defense stocks are tipped to reignite a rally as rearmament enters a new stage. Emerging-market stock valuations have fallen to less than half of the S&P 500’s, a potential opportunity. In the consumer sector, Cava beat earnings on traffic gains, Brinker forecast continued growth as Chili’s attracts value diners, Performance Food logged higher profit on price increases, Cardinal Health had mixed sales but sees growth, and Tractor Supply is cutting prices and slowing expansion to rebound. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker is taking medical leave; senior VPs will oversee operations. ABN Amro beat profit estimates and raised its revenue outlook. AGL Energy jumped most in six months on strong battery performance. Vestas shares surged as wind turbine orders bounce back. Brinker also guided for profitable growth. Tata Group erased $4.5 billion in market value after Chairman Chandrasekaran announced his exit. John Lewis boss Peter Ruis stepped down amid tough trading. Norway's oil fund made a record first-half profit of nearly $185 billion, supported by Asia tech stocks.

Fixed Income & Currencies

Treasury yields and the dollar partially recovered from morning declines after CPI data fueled a brief selloff. The U.S. sold 10-year debt at the highest yields since the financial crisis, with decent demand. Barclays said picky bond buyers are keeping yields at multiyear peaks. Pimco's Seidner says angst over Fed credibility is overdone, and current bond yields look attractive. Eurozone government bond yields rose ahead of U.S. CPI. The yen edged near 160 per dollar, keeping intervention watches on high alert. Japan's intervention has worn off, and a new katsu curry index rivals the Big Mac gauge to show yen weakness. Yen intervention also put China’s yuan under more pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index ended flat Tuesday. Uncertainty over the Fed's rate path could weigh on the dollar, according to MUFG. In cross-border markets, the Brazil carry trade is jittery ahead of elections. The South African rand carry is luring foreign investors to bonds at the fastest pace since January. Traders are piling into Taiwan dollar options betting on a rebound. Emerging-market currencies traded mixed after U.S. inflation data failed to shift Fed bets. Air Baltic bonds slumped further after the airline announced a debt-for-equity swap plan. Data center QTS held investor calls ahead of a potential $2.85 billion bond sale. Jane Street priced $14.6 billion of bonds with an 8% 10-year yield, part of a broader debt overhaul. Hormuz closure is helping emerging-market company bonds beat U.S. peers. India's inflation held within target, backing an RBI pause. Colombia inflation unexpectedly slowed, easing pressure on rates.

Commodities & Energy

Oil futures were little changed as Hormuz talks appeared at a standstill, but oil later surged with no deal in sight. OPEC again cut its oil-demand forecast as Hormuz talks stalled. The IEA raised its 2026 oil demand forecast but noted a deeper contraction this year due to Middle East disruption. Russia’s oil output lagged OPEC+ quota by almost 1 million barrels/day in July as Ukraine attacked infrastructure. Saudi Arabia reported a 1 million bpd output rebound in July. U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted an unexpected build of 17.4 million barrels. Black Sea oil tanker rates surged to a record on drone attacks. Gulf oil giants are spending billions to build alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas futures rose on hotter weather forecasts. European gas prices are near Iran war highs as heatwaves and a solar eclipse strain supplies. Gold settled 0.6% higher, up four consecutive sessions; silver rose 1.2%. Gold rallied further after tame U.S. inflation calmed rate-hike fears. Aluminum extended gains to a seven-week high after a Brazilian plant cut output. Radiant World is offering a $150 million aluminum stash for sale. The USDA cut corn yield projections to 180.7 bushels/acre, a surprise. Colombia coffee exports partially resumed after the earthquake disrupted port operations. Kenya plans corn imports after crop failure. Scotland’s North Sea oil revenues dropped 12%. Germany seeks bids for nationalized energy firm Uniper. Greenland oil wildcatters delayed a controversial drilling plan. Energy startup Form Energy raised $750 million for rust-powered batteries. Barrick tapped Bock to lead its ex-North America unit ahead of an IPO, and a truce with Newmont clears the path. Lloyds Metals was authorized to restart a giant PNG copper mine.

Macro & Policy

July CPI data showed inflation eased slightly but prices remain elevated as the war drags on. Benign inflation offers a reprieve to the Fed as it weighs a rate increase, but the debate is not resolved. Consumer debt data shows overall health but persisting divides. U.S. household delinquencies improved in the second quarter. Americans have never paid this much for fuel so late in the year. Heat, fire, smoke and storms are wreaking havoc on the economy. Businesses are adapting to climate shocks with strategic investments. The Treasury scaled back scrutiny of U.S. shell companies, halting enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act. Trump tariffs are forcing some Canadian companies to move south. Bank of America committed $250 billion to U.S. infrastructure projects. Morgan Stanley announced a $1.5 trillion infrastructure initiative. Goldman Sachs is doubling down on "boomer candy" ETFs with downside protection. Wealth management has a $3 trillion problem: investors hoarding too much cash. New York City’s five pensions gained 13% on surging U.S. stocks. Omers returned 4.8% in the first half. Norway’s $2.3 trillion fund achieved record first-half returns, but the CEO is more nervous. The labor market slowed as employers grew wary of hiring. Homeowners tight on cash are tapping home equity. El Niño is hitting three continents, causing dry spells and crop failures. Its economic impact is likely to be one of the strongest on record. China’s real estate market is trying to defuse a $148 billion time bomb of expiring leases. China is winning the Ice Silk Road race as Arctic melting opens new trade routes. Vietnam bets on Korean-style chaebols to boost growth. The west has given China the keys to the medicine cabinet in antibiotics. Switzerland pushes ahead with post-Credit Suisse banking reforms. Britain needs more investors, not higher taxes on investment. Europeans braced for a 5th heat wave of 2026 have had enough. Farmers move to night shift to beat European heat. German states suspend Sunday truck ban as low Rhine levels disrupt shipping. New Zealand PM Luxon survived a leadership challenge. South Africa vows Eskom won’t weaken after transmission restructuring.

Structured Products, Derivatives & Market Structure

Goldman Sachs is doubling down on ETFs that use derivatives for stocklike returns with limited downside. Korea will require mock trading for single-stock leveraged ETFs to tighten rules. MEMX filed to list prediction market-style bets on earnings. India's small traders lost $9.6 billion in options despite regulatory curbs. FanDuel and DraftKings are hedging their bets with a predictions pivot. New York City launched a sweeping investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi over marketing practices. Prediction firms are flagging insider traders, but many will not face charges. SEC alleged a fund adviser misled investors in pre-IPO schemes. Lambda Inc. wrapped up a $926 million leveraged-loan deal to finance AI chips. QTS holds calls for a potential $2.85 billion debt sale for data-center financing. Germany seeks bids for nationalized Uniper by Sept. 21. TPG agreed to buy South Korea’s Lotte Rental for $925 million. Teledyne Technologies will buy Varex Imaging for $1.1 billion. Anson Funds pushes Lionsgate for a sale. Wall Street wants another half-trillion dollars for the AI boom, with six firms raising $500 billion for Nvidia customers. The bond market inflated Powerball to $1 billion. Goldman staff named as suspects in a Brazil investigation over a shareholder dispute. Barrick and Newmont gold mining truce clears way for an IPO. Carvana gets a balance sheet tune-up as short bets fall. UWM, America’s largest home lender, falls out of the hamster wheel. Deutsche Finance Group set to lose a Boston life science investment. Japan's DMG Mori seeks $300 million in Japan share sale. South Korean group Hanwha makes a U.S. defence push with a $1.2 billion bid for Austal’s American business. Nifty 50 inclusion could boost BSE with $741 million in passive flows. Turing, a Japanese self-driving startup, plans a U.S. office and targets a $10 billion IPO valuation. Hawaii taps muni market to finish the first U.S. driverless rail line. L.A. performing arts school plans a $117 million bond deal, the largest private school deal in two years. Odd Lots Live is coming to Los Angeles on 9/17.