Last month, global sea temperatures hit a record high for July, an ominous sign for climate change but also presenting commercial opportunities as Arctic ice melts. New shipping lanes in the High North promise to cut transport time from the Atlantic to the Pacific, reshaping the geostrategic map. Under President Donald Trump's "Donroe Doctrine," the US prioritizes security in the northern and western hemispheres, yet it is China with Russian icebreakers that capitalizes most on Arctic commerce.

This week, a Chinese shipping line launched the first weekly container ship passage through the Arctic, branding the route the Ice Silk Road. China has made maritime dominance a strategic focus since joining the WTO, now controlling 55 per cent of the shipbuilding industry versus 5 per cent in 2000. This asymmetry raises commercial and military concerns for the US and its allies.

There is bipartisan US support for the Ships Act to revitalize domestic shipyards, though critics say it has been diluted by lobbying from importers. Trump has been praised for a deal to build icebreakers with Finland, though the strategy originated under the Biden administration. More icebreakers are needed as Arctic pathways open, even when no ice is visible.

China, declaring itself a "near Arctic" nation, collaborates with Russia on oil and gas transport. Russia seeks control over the Northern Sea Route, while the US, Canada, and others map Arctic seabeds for routes and minerals. The melting ice creates a cycle of increased shipping and exploitation, and China holds an early lead in this new race to secure the Arctic.