Intel investors are betting on a comeback after the company said it would issue at least $15bn of new stock, valuing its shares at nearly 55 times forecast earnings — higher than before the 2000 tech crash.

Under Lip-Bu Tan, who took over from Pat Gelsinger in March 2025, Intel has cut headcount by a fifth, sold subsidiary stakes, and partnered with Elon Musk’s Tesla. AI‑driven demand for GPU‑type chips has boosted sales of its server CPUs, with the market now estimated at $220bn by 2030, per AMD.

Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, expect foundry revenue to reach $20bn by 2030 and capital spending to peak at $26bn in 2027. If Intel triples its data‑centre business, restores PC sales to 2021 levels, and hits a 40% operating margin, earnings could be about $40bn on $120bn of sales, giving a market cap of $500bn — over 12 times 2030 earnings, akin to TSMC and AMD.

Backed by investors such as Nvidia and the US government, Apple and other AI hyperscalers are watching closely. The real test is turning this lofty valuation into solid fundamentals.