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El Niño’s Economic Threats

Financial Times Markets •
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London’s fifth heatwave has prompted Prime Minister Andy Burnham to convene the Cobra emergency committee as the UK struggles with drought‑ridden summer weather.

The world faces a potential very strong El Niño, with NOAA estimating over 80 percent chance of a record‑setting event. Investment firm Moreton Capital Partners is raising a fund to capitalize on the expected El Niño cycle. The warming of the Pacific, compounded by a pre‑existing 1.4 C of anthropogenic heat, could lift global temperatures by another tenth of a degree, amplifying extreme rainfall and drought.

Commodity markets have already felt the squeeze – coffee up 26 %, cocoa 37 %, and wheat and rice production threatened across Australia and India – while the World Food Programme warns that the episode could push 49 million more people into food insecurity.

Financial market analysts, including Morgan Stanley, see limited short‑term impact on indices such as the S&P 500, but the long‑term economic damage, especially in low‑income regions, may be profound, highlighting the need for stronger climate‑risk integration in investment strategy.