It has been a turbulent year for the global food industry. Disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a surge in the price of fertiliser, fuel and cooking oil. The Ukraine war has continued to hit grain exports through the Black Sea, and droughts and wildfires, linked to global warming, have scorched crops from Australia to Europe.

Now an intensifying El Niño — a climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific — is set to compound strains on food production. Alarming forecasts by the UK Met Office point to an exceptional rise in water temperatures, potentially the strongest El Niño "in living memory". Coffee and cocoa production across west Africa and South America face risks, while in Asia rice cultivation is threatened by weaker monsoon rains.

The World Food Programme warns acutely food-insecure people in vulnerable nations could rise by a fifth to 274mn by end of 2027. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate a severe El Niño could raise global food inflation by around 0.7 percentage points at its peak, disproportionately hurting developing nations. The Panama Canal Authority also plans to limit daily transits due to lack of rainfall.

The global food system has often outperformed worst-case predictions, aided by agile supply chains and new farming technologies. However, climate change and geopolitical rifts are straining supplies between cycles, and global warming may be increasing the intensity of the weather oscillation itself. Investment in early warning systems, climate-resilient crops, diversified supply chains, and international co-operation on weather data will be essential.