A strengthening El Niño is threatening to disrupt production of some of the world’s most heavily traded agricultural commodities, driving sharp swings in prices and raising the risk of food shortages and widespread inflation.

The weather pattern, which causes severe rains and droughts and typically occurs every two to seven years, has already hit coffee and cocoa prices as investors anticipate crop damage from Brazil to West Africa and south‑east Asia. Arabica coffee prices have risen 30 per cent since early June to $3.12 a pound, including the biggest one‑day gain in 47 years. Cocoa has moved just as sharply, with New York futures climbing more than 63 per cent from $3,950 a tonne in mid‑June to an eight‑month high of $6,455 on July 9 before easing back to $5,600, still more than 40 per cent above the June low.

Analysts at Rabobank note an increasing correlation between coffee and cocoa prices, suggesting investors are applying an “El Niño risk premium” across soft commodities. The ECB estimates strong El Niño events typically raise global food commodity prices by 9 per cent. Jefferies warned that, amid the US‑Iran war, this effect could be higher. Experts say the threat could push at least 49mn more people into acute food insecurity by 2027, with fertiliser shortages and weather shocks compounding the risk.