Danish tanker group Torm CEO Jacob Meldgaard says markets are underestimating the risk of a prolonged stalemate in the Iran conflict, comparing it to Russia's war in Ukraine. He argues that both the US and Iran have no incentive to end hostilities quickly, and Gulf states are preparing for a drawn-out disruption lasting months or years. Oil prices fell this week on talks between Iran and Oman to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, yet freight rates to China remain at record highs.

Torm reported a record Q2 net profit of $338mn, nearly six times a year earlier, driven by surging freight rates. Meldgaard said maintaining pre-war export volumes would require substantially more vessels — potentially twice as many crude supertankers and three times as many refined-fuel tankers — because ships are being used less efficiently. Gulf nations are expanding their own tanker fleets to bypass Iranian threats, but Meldgaard believes this buying spree is a regional response unlikely to structurally change the global tanker market.

He added that with current US policy, a return to the pre-2016 situation is unrealistic.