Last updated: August 12, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Public Markets
— Past 24 Hours
Equities & Macro Outlook
US stock futures extended gains after July inflation data came in "bang-in-line" with expectations, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates and clearing the way for an earnings-led tech rally. Dow futures rose ahead of the CPI report, buoyed by strong results from Super Micro Computer and Core Weave that rekindled the AI trade. However, US stocks faded for a second straight session as many investors remained cautious, with one trader advising to "sleep with one eye open, hold your pillow tight." US stocks also slid as negotiations about the future of the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked.
Ed Yardeni raised his S&P 500 Index target to 8,400, topping his own Street-high forecast, citing "fabulous earnings momentum." Yet potential peak earnings pose a new worry: earnings growth has been too strong, setting the stage for disappointment. Systematic buyers are getting ready to load up on stocks again after a massive unwind, according to Citadel Securities. Optical stocks are surging again as rising confidence in AI spending boosts component makers. Market insight is available on TSMC, ASML, CoreWeave and others in the Tech, Media & Telecom roundup, as well as on Samsung, Life360, CoreWeave.
New York City’s five pensions beat their investment target over the past fiscal year, propelled by a record-breaking US stock market. Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund reported its best quarterly return in six years, helped by gains from global tech companies. Its CEO said the record first-half return is "as good as it gets." The Norway Oil Fund made a record profit of nearly $185 billion in the first half, buoyed by an Asia tech stock rally. Omers returned 4.8% in the first half, gaining C$6.9 billion from a strong US dollar and rising stock market.
Asian stocks slipped as tensions weighed ahead of US CPI. European indexes were mostly lower as Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment. FTSE 100 stocks were set to fall again. Emerging-market stocks rose, led by a rally in Asian chipmakers after upbeat results from AI infrastructure firms. JPMorgan raised its target for Singapore stocks as robust economic growth and a narrowing valuation gap bolster their outlook. Taiwanese stocks are gaining favor over South Korea’s on steadier earnings prospects after the AI selloff.
Corporate Earnings & Strategy
Super Micro Computer reported a fourth-quarter profit of $1.17 billion, up from $195.2 million a year earlier, as gross margin improved. CoreWeave shares jumped 12% after revenue doubled, with a mounting sales backlog of $104 billion showing strong demand for cloud computing. Foxconn reported another strong quarter as it boosted production of AI servers and tech hardware. Brinker International logged higher profit and revenue in Q4, fueled by momentum across its Chili’s brand. Cava Group said climbing customer traffic boosted Q2 profit, with sales already bouncing back from cyclospora outbreaks. Performance Food logged higher sales and profit as both costs and prices increased. H&R Block revenue increased to $1.14 billion, and it raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Constellation Software posted a Q2 profit of $274 million, up from $56 million, driven by acquisition growth.
Vestas Wind Systems shares jumped 18.5% after higher Q2 earnings and improved profitability, prompting an upgrade to full-year margin guidance. Vestas shares also soared after a bounce-back in wind turbine orders and a share buyback announcement. Vestas CEO Vestas said EU regulators prevent mergers needed to compete globally. ABN Amro beat profit estimates on higher fees and lending income, raising its revenue outlook. ABN AMRO Bank boosted guidance as operating income climbed 13% in Q2. Hannover Re posted lower Q2 net profit on a currency hit but remains on track to achieve full-year guidance. AGL Energy shares jumped the most in six months as its batteries helped offset declining wholesale electricity prices in Australia. Shoprite climbed the most in 11 months as Africa’s largest supermarket chain sees earnings rising up to 14.7% on higher e-commerce sales.
Tencent reported promising progress on AI, but spending snuffed out its profit-growth run. Godrej Consumer shares plunged after CEO Sudhir Sitapati resigned with immediate effect. Sanrio shares tumbled as much as 20% after Q1 operating income missed estimates. Rakuten shares sank the most in over two years as persisting mobile losses fueled investor fears. On Holding tempered its outlook as running-shoe sales underwhelmed, now expecting sales growth in the low-20% range. Smithfield Foods cut its outlook for the year as inflation-weary consumers become choosier. JBS said its US beef business has yet to benefit from a restructuring plan but sees recovery from Mexican cattle flows.
Fixed Income
Bond traders held on to hedges that the Fed could hike in September, pricing in a roughly 50% chance despite a tame CPI reading. Benign inflation data would reduce the urgency around a September rate rise. Pimco’s Seidner says market anxiety over Fed credibility is overdone and that US bond yields at current levels look attractive. Barclays says a shift in the buyer base of US Treasuries to value-oriented mutual funds has helped propel 30-year yields to multi-decade peaks. Eurozone government bond yields rose as investors exercised caution ahead of U.S. CPI data.
South Korea’s 30-year government bond yield climbed to a record as elevated energy prices and weaker demand from life insurers intensified pressure. Indonesia’s bond market, the worst performer in Asia, may bounce back as a new central bank chief is expected to support the currency. China revived its free-trade zone bond market after a 2023 crackdown. Emerging-market company bonds are beating US peers, with average borrowing costs falling to the lowest level since January relative to US corporates. Wealth management has a $3 trillion problem: investors are keeping too much cash in money-market funds, despite advisers pitching bonds.
Commodities & Energy
Oil futures extended gains as markets remained skeptical that a deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Latest oil market news shows oil held on to a sixth day of gains over such skepticism. Oil prices rose as US-Iran deal hopes faded, injecting volatility into the gas market. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.001% to 96.15. US natural gas futures gave back some of the previous day’s gains, as soft LNG demand and comfortable storage levels cap rallies. Oil prices rose on Iran-Oman tensions. US futures were higher ahead of the key inflation report, while oil rose as the US-Iran deadlock continued.
Russia’s daily oil output lagged behind its OPEC+ quota by almost a million barrels a day in July as Ukraine attacked its oil infrastructure. Black Sea oil tanker rates surged to a record after drone attacks drove down prices for Kazakhstan’s CPC export grade. OPEC cut its oil-demand forecast again as Hormuz talks stalled. Saudi Arabia reported a 1-million-barrel-a-day output rebound in July. The IEA said global oil demand is set for a deeper contraction this year as Middle East hostilities push up fuel prices. The US sees Iran war oil disruptions lasting through 2027, with supply cuts of about 600,000 barrels per day. The UAE is shuttling Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz. US forces fired on a ship that violated the Iran blockade.
Gold advanced as traders watched US inflation for rate-hike clues. Gold rose ahead of the U.S. CPI figures. Gold settled 0.5% higher for a third-consecutive session, while silver fell 0.5%. Chile cut its copper production forecast again as mine woes persist. Colombian coffee exports are largely halted after a deadly earthquake disrupted the main port. A Colombian earthquake disrupted a key coffee export road. Panama Canal fees hit a record high as El Niño and the Iran war choke shipping. Radiant World is seeking to sell an aluminum stockpile worth some $150 million. Lloyds Metals was authorized to restart a giant PNG copper mine closed for almost 40 years. Form Energy raised $750 million for rust-powered batteries, pushing its total fundraising past $2 billion. China’s stubborn commodity markets defy the economic rulebook as producers survive on lower prices, complicating Beijing’s struggle with weak inflation.
Currencies
Yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of US inflation data, turning to derivatives for flexibility. Yen intervention is wearing off. Japan and US yen intervention has limited impact. Yen intervention put China’s yuan under more pressure. A new Katsu Curry Index rivals the Big Mac gauge to show how weak the yen really is. CPI data and the level of the yen are linked. Why the yen matters is explained by US intervention in a foreign bond market.
World-beating rand carry trades are luring foreign investors to South African bonds at the fastest pace since January. A favorite carry trade gets a dose of Brazil election jitters, prompting some investors to pare exposure. Asian currencies were steady before US CPI data. Emerging-market currencies were mixed. India’s inflation held within the RBI’s target range, backing a pause in rate cuts.
Corporate & Policy
Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire ETF provider Neos for up to $2.3 billion, continuing to boost its presence in asset management. Nasdaq will acquire off-exchange equity execution venue Leve L Markets. Blackstone and La Caisse will buy 25% of Air Canada’s Aeroplan loyalty program for nearly $2 billion. Germany seeks bids for nationalized energy firm Uniper by Sept. 21. Bank of America committed $250 billion to US projects in a boost to the "America First" agenda. Bank of America will deploy $250 billion to bolster AI and energy infrastructure.
General Motors set up a $4.5 billion safety net to avoid parts shortages. General Motors built a $4.5 billion supply-chain safety net. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker will take a medical leave of absence; a senior VP and the CFO will oversee operations. Cracker Barrel’s CEO Julie Masino exited after a controversial rebranding. Paramount executives say leaving California is on the table as the antitrust battle drags on over its Warner Bros. deal. David Ellison floats a Hollywood exit as states threaten his deal. Will Paramount’s brinkmanship work? CEO David Ellison is threatening to pull the company out of California.
Tata Group erased $4.5 billion in market value after Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran said he will step down when his term ends in February 2027. Tata Sons chairman resigned ahead of an AGM. Tata chair to step down as succession row escalates. Switzerland pushes ahead with a post-Credit Suisse crackdown, giving regulators greater powers. HSBC’s global insurance head stepped down as the bank continues its overhaul. Activist Elliott nominated six candidates for the board of gold miner Northern Star Resources.
Target hired its first chief AI officer in retail’s latest tech push. Thrive Holdings, an AI-focused buyer of service firms, raised $2 billion, drawing interest from backers like SoftBank. Lovable, a vibe-coding startup, hit a $13 billion valuation. A Japanese self-driving startup plans a US office and targets a $10 billion IPO valuation. Longtime OpenAI exec Brad Lightcap is stepping down to "start something new." Anthropic’s auditor is EY. China-linked hackers hit Taiwan in an unprecedented "autonomous" AI cyber attack. Uber exited its Serve Robotics stake as the delivery alliance unraveled.
Aurora Cannabis is reviewing an unsolicited takeover bid from Curaleaf for about $272 million. MEMX filed to list prediction market-style bets on earnings. NYC launched a sweeping investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi over marketing practices. Harrods is fighting with the Al Fayed estate over hundreds of sex abuse claims. Singapore Airlines lost almost $800 million on its Air India bet, with more pain forecast. DMG Mori seeks $300 million in a Japan share sale. Jane Street is repaying $5.5 billion of floating-rate loans. Revolut cut back WeWork access for premium customers after price rises. Bitwise cut 14% of jobs with the crypto industry under pressure. Smithfield lowered its outlook on consumer caution. Salvini proposed a windfall tax on Italian bank profits.
El Niño is likely to be one of the strongest on record and will hit the world economy. Heat, fire, smoke and storms are wreaking havoc on the economy. Heat waves push European gas prices close to Iran war highs. Europeans, braced for a 5th heat wave, say summer has lost its appeal. UK power supplies will likely be stretched during a solar eclipse. Burnham will hold an emergency Cobra meeting in response to heat waves. Europe’s farmers move to the night shift to beat the heat.
Key Political & Geopolitical Developments
Trump secretly evacuated from Turkey using a military jet amid threats from Iran. Trump’s secret Air Force One swap saw the plane become a flying decoy. Trump officials traveled on a decoy plane. Zhu Rongji, former Chinese premier who pushed China to a market economy, died at. JD Vance asked Ukraine to halt strikes on tankers using a Russian port. The US asked Ukraine to stop strikes on tankers. Trump tariffs force some Canadian companies to move south of the border. Trump sued New York and other states over in-state tuition for migrants. Trump administration bars Medicaid funding of transition treatment for transgender youth.