The US now expects oil supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran war to reach about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of next year. The conflict continues to crimp shipments via the critical Strait of Hormuz. This projection extends through 2027, indicating prolonged market strain.

The estimate underscores the severity of the ongoing military engagement. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which about one-fifth of global oil passes, remains a chokepoint for supplies.

These disruptions could keep oil prices elevated and threaten global energy security. Analysts warn that any escalation could further reduce flows, impacting refineries and consumers worldwide.

Despite diplomatic efforts, the US acknowledges that the conflict’s impact on oil infrastructure and shipping routes will persist for years, requiring contingency planning for import-dependent nations.