Last updated: August 7, 2026, 11:42 AM ET

Public Markets Briefing

US Jobs Data Reshapes Fed Rate Bets

The July jobs report showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs, prompting US Treasuries to rally as bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes diminished. US stock futures surged higher after the data showed the US economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July. The yen jumped 1% against the dollar after the US jobs data, following earlier speculation that authorities could intervene again on the currency. Traders were watching the report for clues to the Fed's next move, with high stakes for investors. Bond investors braced for the labor market data, which could cool growing expectations the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its September meeting.

Despite the weak report, Federal Reserve officials remain chiefly focused on the trajectory of inflation after five years of overshooting the central bank's 2 percent target. The jobs report poses a new test for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as investors increasingly expect the Fed to begin raising rates as soon as next month. The success of Warsh's chairmanship may rest on an issue outside traditional monetary policy: the nation's ongoing fiscal deficits. The pushback against Warsh is unwarranted as he drives much-needed reform, according to one analysis. Traders are rushing to hedge against swings in the US dollar ahead of the payroll numbers as Warsh leaves Wall Street guessing at his next move.

Treasury yields edged lower ahead of Friday's employment report after weaker-than-expected private payrolls data. Investors aren't asking for rate guarantees, they simply want to know how the Fed will react to changing economic data, amid Warsh's silence. Barclays and HSBC say concern the Federal Reserve is dragging its feet on inflation is giving investors another reason to buy inflation-protected bonds. Bond traders have been spending millions of dollars to guard against sharp declines in long-dated Treasuries that risk igniting bigger volatility in the $31 trillion market. Treasury yields cooled amid a busy day of US economic indicators and ahead of Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Equities Rally as AI Fears Fade

After spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about profligate AI spending, the world's biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way again. Sentiment has turned around completely from last month, with tech euphoria returning in just four days. A dramatic turnaround in technology stocks has powered a $3.5 trillion increase in the Nasdaq 100's market capitalization in just four days. The S&P 500 rose 1.8%, pushing past its previous peak at the start of June and capping a big turnaround from a recent selloff in technology stocks. Futures climbed as the latest batch of earnings pointed to strong demand for, and spending on, artificial intelligence, with the S&P 500 poised for another record.

Traders can't get enough of options betting on more gains in the S&P 500 Index, a gauge that has for months been in the shadow of its more volatile rival, the Nasdaq. Investor bullishness has become so extreme that it's time to start reducing exposure to risky assets, according to Bank of America strategists. Wall Street's blistering run took a breather, with traders digesting the recent stock gains and monitoring any hints of progress toward a deal to revive the Strait of Hormuz. US stocks surged and oil fell sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "today or tomorrow." The price of oil fell sharply on hopes that talks were progressing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sending stocks rallying.

A flare-up in geopolitical risks sent stocks and bonds lower as oil jumped, fueling inflation worries before Friday's jobs report. The blue-chip average notched its 24th high of the year, powered by strong earnings, while the Nasdaq slipped. US stocks finished mixed as optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was offset by more volatility in artificial-intelligence wagers. The Dow industrials led US stocks mostly lower as oil prices rose amid uncertainty in the Middle East, poised to break their winning streak. US stocks fell in a jittery session amid doubts about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Currency Intervention Shakes FX Markets

One of the most dramatic interventions in decades aims to stabilize the slumping yen and stave off a larger crisis. Japan said it intervened in the currency market three times during the spring Golden Week holiday to prop up the yen, going beyond its recent twin-punch playbook. The yen is heading into the end of the week having surrendered nearly half of its intervention-driven gains, fueling speculation that authorities may step into the market again. The Japanese yen will strengthen about 6% against the dollar by year-end following coordinated currency intervention, according to revised expectations from Bank of America. The US's decision to sell euros to support Japan's currency without warning European policymakers is adding to geopolitical risks, according to BlackRock.

The US is bolstering the yen as it did with the Argentine peso, and the reasons are not solely economic. Tokyo and Washington's desire to maintain stability may be creating long-term danger, illustrating the risks of monetary experiments. US support for Japan's efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar's status as the most dominant reserve currency, according to Goldman Sachs. The way the yen trade is being done should make us worry that the Federal Reserve is being roped into easing monetary conditions, according to one analysis. A rarely used Fed facility saw no activity last week, suggesting Japan didn't use the tool in its latest effort to support the yen.

The dollar finished its best day in two weeks as oil prices advanced amid fading optimism over easing tensions in the Middle East. The South Korean won rose to the strongest level in almost 10 months as exporters converted their dollar earnings into the local currency. The DXY dollar index traded steady and the currency could rise if US nonfarm payrolls proved more positive than expected. Emerging-market carry trades are showing resilience even after joint US-Japan currency intervention dented the appeal of this yen-funded strategy. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.2%, down six of the past seven trading days, and edged lower again the following session, down five of the past six.

Commodities: Copper, Oil, and Gold in Focus

Copper headed for a record close after strong gains fueled by signs of tighter short-term supply across the global market. Copper futures on Comex climbed to a record high as investors awaited a decision on US tariffs, while also tracking a push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The copper market is tightening fast, with a surge in shipments to the US and rising orders in China setting the stage for a rally that could take global benchmark prices to all-time highs. A two-way pull is depleting LME inventories, raising the risk of another spike in copper futures contracts. Copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading session and ended at fresh records, while gold and silver prices also settled higher.

Gold jumped the most since February as prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Gold was on track for its biggest gain in more than six months as dip-buyers supported prices above a key technical level. Gold and silver prices dropped, snapping two- and three-day winning streaks, respectively. Gold futures finished higher for the day as the latest JOLTS report showed the number of job openings little changed in June. China's central bank ramped up additions to its gold reserves last month, pushing a buying streak toward the two-year mark.

Crude futures fell to a three-week low after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could be close to an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil extended gains after a report that Iran attacked "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking to bar US ships from the critical waterway. Oil prices extended the previous session's gains as markets waited the outcome of talks about the Strait of Hormuz. Investors stood their ground ahead of a hotly anticipated jobs report and potential progress in Middle East talks, with oil ticking higher. Oil analysts are stumped by the case of the missing barrels, as they investigate discrepancies in supply data.

US imports of Saudi oil dropped to zero in July, the first time that's happened for an entire month since 1985. Commercial crude stockpiles were up by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended July 31, against expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decline. Saudi Arabia has not commented on the claim by the Houthis, who have vowed to close "all access routes" to Saudi oil shipments. OPEC's crude production recouped some more of its wartime losses last month with gains in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Global food prices edged higher in July to the highest in more than three years as renewed concerns over key grain export corridors compounded adverse weather.

The effects of the Hormuz closure are compounded by expectations of a strong El Nino, which could disrupt harvests across key farming regions. US natural gas futures picked up some ground following losses the previous session on the expanding inventory surplus. US natural gas futures edged up in rangebound trading ahead of the EIA's weekly storage report. US natural gas futures lost ground as temperature forecasts were revised lower while production and inventories remained high.

Corporate Earnings Drive Markets

WPP shares soared the most since its 1995 initial public offering after the advertising agency reported its turnaround efforts are gaining momentum. WPP shares jumped more than 25% as improved results followed the London-listed advertising group's root-and-branch review to streamline its businesses. WPP said revenue less pass-through costs fell less sharply last quarter thanks to a recovery in its media-buying operations. Allianz generated record second-quarter profit on better results in its insurance and asset management businesses. Europe's largest insurer by market capitalization booked a 10.6% rise in group operating profit.

Glencore reported a steep jump in profits after a surge in the price of its most important commodities and its trading unit had one of its best ever periods. Glencore has long complained its London shares are undervalued, and plans a secondary listing in Australia. SoftBank reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly net income, helped by a rally in its chip-stock holdings. SoftBank's first-quarter profits declined following records set in recent quarters, but the group beat expectations on an $8bn gain on its Intel stake. The Japanese technology investor has vowed to become a leading builder of AI data centers, using its OpenAI stake to borrow $10 billion.

Disney's third-quarter revenue increased 7% to $25.2 billion, driven by growth from the company's experiences unit. Disney agreed to sell its stake in A+E Global Media to Hearst for about $1.2 billion, giving Hearst full ownership of Lifetime and The History Channel. Warner Bros. Discovery reported a steep drop in sales as it copes with the loss of National Basketball Association rights and a weak movie lineup. Warner Bros. CEO is confident the Paramount deal will close, as streaming revenue improves and HBO Max expands its subscriber base. Paramount agreed safeguards for UK approval of the $110bn WBD deal, with David Ellison making commitments on news provision and investment.

Paramount's streaming service continued to grow in the latest quarter, helping to narrowly offset another sales decline for its television unit. A dozen states sued to block the $81 billion Paramount-Warner merger, with the antitrust trial set for March and expected to last 12 court days. Airbnb boosted its forecast, now expecting revenue to increase by at least a mid-teens rate this year on strong demand. Instacart reported revenue increased to $1.04 billion from $914 million, beating Wall Street expectations of $1.03 billion. Uber notched higher revenue in the second quarter but issued a soft outlook as it continues to invest heavily in autonomous vehicles.

Uber pledged $10bn to win the robotaxi race, with chief Dara Khosrowshahi lauding strong bookings and record cash flow. Lyft's gross bookings rose to $5.5 billion in the second quarter, but the rideshare company expects bookings to rise at a slower pace of 15% to 19%. Honda doubled its profit and lifted guidance on a weak yen, aiming to improve its hybrid EV offerings. Honda raised its outlook 30% as the motorcycle business, a weak yen and US demand for hybrids lifted quarterly results to a record. Cathay Pacific posted its strongest first half since 2010, with increased passenger and cargo traffic more than offsetting a surge in fuel prices.

Wizz Air warned that high fuel costs may wipe out profits, swinging to a loss of almost €200 million between April and June. DraftKings reported sales and earnings that missed analysts expectations as the sportsbetting industry confronts a new challenge from prediction-market players. The online sports betting company posted a loss of $67.6 million for the second quarter, compared with a profit of $157.9 million a year earlier. Under Armour posted lower fiscal first-quarter revenue but swung to a small profit despite a challenging environment in North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Take-Two recorded higher sales in its fiscal first quarter but losses widened due to discontinued development of a title in its pipeline.

Burger King's revamped Whopper was helping win market share, striking a blow in the fast-food burger wars. Restaurant Brands International's profit rose in the second quarter, driven by a standout performance at Burger King US. Wendy's withdrew its guidance and cut its dividend as it works to return to sales growth at its US restaurants. Papa John's cut its outlook for the year and suspended its dividend as its North American business faces a soft consumer environment. Celsius shares tumbled after the energy drink maker's second-quarter revenue missed expectations as competition hurt sales of its namesake brand.

CVS Health said it will revamp its weight management program through a partnership with Eli Lilly as it lifted its full-year outlook. Eli Lilly reported higher net income and revenue in the recent quarter, fueled by continued surging demand for its GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Novo Nordisk said annual sales and operating profit should fall less than it previously expected following a boost in the second quarter. Novo's Wegovy pill disappointed investors with sales that failed to live up to the hype of an obesity drug whose launch was billed the most successful in history. Amgen now expects full-year revenue between $38.2 billion and $39.4 billion, but said it was halting development of a potential obesity treatment.

Siemens shares fell as digital industries order growth missed expectations, facing excess customer inventories and weak demand in China. Siemens Energy saw record high orders in its fiscal third quarter on US data-center demand. Siemens Energy expects to achieve the higher end of its fiscal-year profit margin guidance, with profit tripling as orders hit record highs. Infineon expects revenue of roughly $18.80 billion for the current fiscal year as the race to build AI infrastructure keeps adding fuel to red-hot semiconductor demand. Sandisk posted a higher net income of $6.9 billion as the artificial-intelligence buildout continued to fuel demand for data storage.

Western Digital reported a more than elevenfold increase in its fourth-quarter profit, driven by continued strong demand for its memory technology. AMD shares fell 8% as Elon Musk committed to Nvidia chips for SpaceX, despite the company's data center sales doubling in the latest quarter. New York Times stock plunged 13% as subscriber growth slowed, even as total revenue climbed 11% to $762.5 million in the second quarter. News Corp revenue rose with growth across all segments, as digital-only subscriptions to The Wall Street Journal averaged nearly 4.5 million. DBS delivered better-than-expected second-quarter profit powered by a surge in wealth-led fee income, and raised its 2026 guidance.

Deals, IPOs and Capital Markets Activity

Dream Finders Homes inked a deal to buy Beazer Homes for about $915 million, following several months of talks. Dream Finders agreed a roughly $916 million deal to buy rival Beazer Homes USA. Nielsen Holdings agreed to buy Double Verify in a deal with an enterprise value of about $2.15 billion. Partners Group nears a €2bn deal for beauty group Aroma-Zone, with French asset manager Eurazeo in talks to sell its stake. Allianz agreed to buy the asset management unit of Singapore's United Overseas Bank, marking the German insurer's second major deal in recent days.

P&G sealed a $3.8bn deal for supplements company Thorne, expanding its health business in a sector that has boomed since the Covid pandemic. Baker Tilly has dropped plans for a roughly $3 billion leveraged loan that was intended to refinance private credit debt and fund a dividend. Ares Management is leading a $2.2 billion direct loan to help finance a healthcare services acquisition, in one of the biggest deals since the private credit market was roiled by record redemptions. Jane Street is in talks to shift its $11bn in debt to investors including Pimco, in a private credit deal that would allow the trading firm to make further investments in AI. Apollo is investing $1.02 billion in a joint venture with Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, a commercial property vehicle that has struggled to provide liquidity.

The team working on Citadel's new Manhattan skyscraper expects to secure a $3.3 billion construction loan for the project. Lumilens, which makes optical gear to speed up data flowing between AI servers, is valued at $5.5 billion in new funding. Celestica is looking to raise $3 billion from selling new shares, joining a flurry of companies raising funds for data centers to power the AI buildout. Kirin Holdings rose 2.4% to near record levels after the Japanese beverage maker announced a deal to acquire Toronto-based Jamieson Wellness for $1.4 billion. Unitree Robotics wants to raise about $900 million in an IPO that tests market interest in humanoid robots.

Housing, Credit and Other Market Signals

Lloyds' data shows house prices were unchanged in July as higher mortgage rates stretch affordability, with the UK housing market in "suspended animation." Shares in United Wholesale Mortgage fell by a record 49% after the country's biggest mortgage lender announced a net loss of $452 million and suspended its dividend. Rocket Companies reported higher second-quarter revenue as its market share in both purchase mortgages and refinancings rose. Zillow's second-quarter revenue jumped 18% from a year earlier to $772 million, as rental agreements grow more quickly than home purchases. Compass shares jumped as much as 15% in post-market trading after cost savings from the acquisition of competitor Anywhere progressed ahead of schedule.

Steep duties on Canadian lumber, wildfires and sawmill closures have cut supply and pushed up prices, even as home-building sputters. Lumber prices surged despite a housing slump, as the US also banned exports of lithium ion battery and tungsten waste. Profit at Blackstone's publicly traded private credit fund dropped 94% in the second quarter as the value of holdings declined, though the performance of loans steadied. BlackRock's BDC moved $523 million in loans to a Pantheon-backed fund, involving nearly half of BlackRock TCP Capital's debt investments. Carlyle posted its highest distributable earnings in nearly four years as the buyout firm continued to have record capital at its disposal to invest.

Monte dei Paschi said it is analyzing its strategic options as rival Intesa Sanpaolo proceeds with a $35 billion takeover bid. Commerzbank unveiled a fresh share buyback as CEO Bettina Orlopp seeks to demonstrate that her strategy delivers strong returns while Italian rival UniCredit prepares to pounce. Commerzbank's CEO called for constructive dialogue with UniCredit after the Italian bank achieved a near majority stake in its German rival. Munich Re lowered its revenue outlook after both volumes and prices fell at last month's round of reinsurance-contract renewals, but reiterated its full-year net profit guidance. Swiss Re's first-half profit beat estimates as the re-insurer saw all key business units perform in line with targets, while announcing a fresh round of cost cuts.

Zurich Insurance reported a 13% gain in profit for the first half of 2026 and said it doesn't expect material exposure to extreme heat and ongoing wildfires. MetLife's second-quarter earnings surpassed Wall Street's expectations, boosted by strong underwriting and volume growth. Prudential Financial reported second-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates as revenue from its asset manager surged. AIG reported results that surpassed Wall Street expectations, roughly two months after Eric Andersen took over as chief executive officer. Motorola Solutions raised its full-year outlook, now expecting adjusted earnings between $17.62 and $17.72 a share on revenue of about $12.98 billion.

Global Market and Geopolitical Risks

Ukraine's agricultural shipments could fall by more than half this season after Russian attacks disrupted Black Sea ports, threatening the country's biggest source of export revenue. Hungary is facing a "dramatic" economic impact given the drought across its agricultural heartland, combined with what may turn out to be a lengthy nuclear production outage. The Rhine conveys vessels and cargo that power European industry, and record low water levels are disrupting supply chains, adding costs and presenting fresh risks to growth. Britain curbed power exports to Europe to preserve supplies after the power grid came under pressure during heatwaves. Repeated heat waves and droughts this summer have put Europe's power system on high alert, with shrinking hydro reserves threatening to drive electricity prices higher later in the year.

Iran's oil exports appear to be stalling as a US naval blockade halts tankers from carrying Tehran's crude. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defense pact in Mecca, seeking to deepen regional security cooperation to deal with wars and instability. The agreement treats an attack on any of the three countries as an attack on all, as Saudi Arabia has recently faced drone and missile strikes. An explosive drone found at a German airport has raised "hybrid threat" alarm, with investigators examining "concrete leads" and a possible Russian role. New intelligence warns Russia may provoke NATO amid dwindling US munitions.

China's factories are finding eager buyers abroad even as weak consumer spending and a prolonged property slump weigh on growth at home. No longer just a producer of cheap consumer goods, China is exporting more high-value items that underpin global manufacturing. The price of a key Chinese steel product has dropped to the lowest in almost a decade as a prolonged property downturn sapped construction demand and swelled inventories. Shanghai is seeking to permit land owners to extend leases for commercial property upon expiry, according to a notice seen by Bloomberg News. Philippine economic growth dramatically slowed in the second quarter, defying expectations of a pickup, as the protracted Middle East conflict stokes inflation.