As Jobs Day approaches and negotiations continue to unclog Middle East oil supplies, analysts face a pressing mystery. They must reconstruct past events to determine where energy prices are headed next.

Back in March, analysts warned that a massive energy crisis could send oil into triple digits. However, prices barely spent any time there. Currently, benchmark Brent crude is around $83 a barrel.

Part of the explanation is that instead of a fifth of global supply being shut off, the Strait of Hormuz saw various leaks. Some ships snuck through, and oil found ways out via pipelines. Additionally, coordinated reserve releases and the fact that China bought much less than usual helped stabilize the market.