Last updated: August 7, 2026, 8:33 AM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Copper Surges to Records as Supply Tightens

Copper headed for a record close after strong gains fueled by signs of tighter short-term supply across the global market. A two-way pull is depleting LME inventories, raising the risk of another spike in futures contracts. The copper market is tightening fast, with a surge in shipments to the US and rising orders in China setting the stage for a rally that could take global benchmark prices to all-time highs. Copper prices rose for the third consecutive session and ended at fresh records, while gold and silver prices also settled higher. Copper futures on New York's Comex climbed to a record as investors awaited a decision on US tariffs, while also tracking a push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Codelco is suspending work on a project designed to extend the life of its biggest copper mine in Chile after identifying a new source of seismic risk.

Oil Markets and Energy Complex

Oil extended gains after a report that Iran attacked "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking to bar US ships from the critical waterway. Crude futures fell to a three-week low after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could be close to an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices extended the previous session's gains as markets waited the outcome of talks about the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC's crude oil production recouped some of its wartime losses last month with gains in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. US imports of Saudi Arabian oil dropped to zero in July, the first time that's happened for an entire month since 1985. Commercial crude oil stockpiles were up by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended July 31, against expectations for a 1.2 million barrel decline. The US shipped a record amount of distillate fuel overseas last week as domestic stockpiles fell again, signaling the global scramble for diesel is draining US supplies. US diesel prices have overtaken the Biden-era average, with the cost for fuel that powers industrial America set to remain elevated even as crude falls. Ukraine's switch to attacking tankers lets Russian plants process more crude and ship less abroad, with refining hitting a 24-year low. US natural gas futures edged up in rangebound trading ahead of the EIA's weekly storage report, while futures later lost ground as temperature forecasts were revised lower. The biggest oil producer in the UAE spent $1.3 billion to expand its tanker fleet to benefit from surging crude exports after the country left OPEC. Fuel-makers enjoying skyrocketing profits will likely keep reaping standout margins through the next quarter and beyond, according to a top US refiner executive.

Jobs Report and Fed Watch

Bond investors are bracing for labor market data Friday, which could cool growing expectations the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next meeting in September. Friday's jobs report comes as investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates as soon as next month. Traders are watching for clues to the Fed's next move as the jobs report takes center stage. Treasury yields rose ahead of Friday's payrolls report, as job-cut plans remained calm in July alongside low weekly jobless-claims figures. Treasury yields edged slightly lower ahead of Friday's employment report after weaker-than-expected private payrolls data. Treasuries rose on Tuesday as signs of progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the Iran war sent oil prices lower, curbing expectations for more than one Fed rate hike. Treasury yields cooled amid a busy day of US economic indicators and ahead of Friday's employment report. Yields on ten-year government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic rose as investors hiked bets on central banks increasing interest rates The DXY dollar index traded steady and the currency could rise if US nonfarm payrolls prove more positive than expected. Barclays and HSBC say concern the Fed is dragging its feet on inflation is giving investors another reason to buy inflation-protected bonds. The success of Kevin Warsh's chairmanship may rest on an issue that sits outside the traditional purview of monetary policy: the nation's ongoing fiscal deficits. The pushback against the Fed chair is unwarranted as he drives much-needed reform, while investors aren't asking for rate guarantees — they simply want to know how the Fed will react to changing economic data.

Tech and AI Resurgence

The world's biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way after spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about their profligate spending on artificial intelligence. A dramatic turnaround in technology stocks has powered a $3.5 trillion increase in the Nasdaq 100's market capitalization in just four days. Sentiment has turned around completely from last month, with tech euphoria returning in just four days. Futures climbed on Wednesday as the latest batch of earnings pointed to strong demand for, and spending on, artificial intelligence. Traders can't get enough of options betting on more gains in the S&P 500 Index, a gauge that has for months been in the shadow of its more volatile rival, the Nasdaq. The flood of AI spending by big tech companies is "trickling down" to the broader economy, according to Wells Fargo, which says that's poised to push up industrial stocks. If investors are still harboring major worries about disappearing cash flows at some Big Tech companies, you'd never know it by looking at the US stock market trading near record highs. China's rapid progress in low-cost artificial intelligence is strengthening the investment case for the country's internet giants after years in the shadow of chipmakers. The semiconductor index fell into a bear market despite "unprecedented" profit increases, as even big profits aren't enough to keep chip investors happy. A spate of well-known hedge funds reported steep losses in July as AI shares tumbled, most notably forcing the highly leveraged Situational Awareness to sell most of its stock portfolio at a deep discount. Whale Rock Capital Management's flagship hedge fund is one of the biggest losers in last month's AI selloff, with a 21.7% drop in July erasing about half of its gains for the year. The technology trade may be poised to become even more dependent on retail investors and more volatile after a rough July, according to JPMorgan.

Currency Markets and Yen Intervention

The yen is heading into the end of the week having surrendered nearly half of its intervention-driven gains, fueling speculation among traders that authorities may step into the market again. Japan said it intervened in the currency market three times during the spring Golden Week holiday to prop up the yen, going beyond its recent twin-punch playbook. One of the most dramatic foreign exchange market interventions in decades aims to stabilize the slumping yen and stave off a larger crisis. Coordinated intervention allowed Japan to support its currency without selling off its US debt holdings. The US's decision to sell euros to support Japan's currency without warning European policymakers is adding to geopolitical risks and further dimming the appeal of longer-maturity government bonds, according to BlackRock. US support for Japan's efforts to prop up the yen is unlikely to damage the dollar's status as the most dominant reserve currency in the world, according to Goldman Sachs. Tokyo and Washington's desire to maintain stability may be creating long-term danger, illustrating the risks of monetary experiments. The way Scott Bessent's yen trade is being done should make us worry that the Federal Reserve is being roped into easing monetary conditions. The Japanese yen will strengthen about 6% against the dollar by year-end following coordinated currency intervention, according to Bank of America. Emerging-market carry trades are showing resilience even after joint US-Japan currency intervention dented the appeal of this yen-funded strategy. Traders are rushing to hedge against swings in the US dollar ahead of Friday's payroll numbers as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh leaves Wall Street guessing at his next move. A rarely used Federal Reserve liquidity facility saw no activity last week, suggesting Japan didn't use the tool in its latest effort to support the yen. The dollar finished its best day in two weeks as oil prices advanced amid fading optimism over easing tensions in the Middle East. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.2%, down six of the past seven trading days, while the index edged lower again, down five of the past six sessions. The South Korean won rose to the strongest level in almost 10 months as exporters converted their dollar earnings into the local currency. India's foreign exchange reserves are expected to swell to a near-record high within weeks, driven by stronger capital inflows following a series of central bank measures. India raised $40 billion from its diaspora to support the sagging rupee, with the central bank's rare push drawing stronger than expected inflows.

Corporate Earnings and M&A

Allianz SE generated record second-quarter profit on better results in its insurance and asset management businesses, with Pimco seeing €32 billion in inflows. Europe's largest insurer booked a 10.6% rise in group operating profit, hitting a record high on asset management growth. Allianz also agreed to buy the asset management unit of Singapore's United Overseas Bank, marking the German insurer's second major deal in recent days. WPP Plc shares soared the most since its 1995 IPO after the advertising agency reported its turnaround efforts are gaining momentum. WPP said revenue less pass-through costs fell less sharply last quarter thanks to a recovery in its media-buying operations. SoftBank Group reported a smaller-than-expected decline in quarterly net income, helped by a rally in its chip-stock holdings while it awaits further gains from its bets on OpenAI. SoftBank's first-quarter profits declined following records set in recent quarters, with an $8 billion gain on its Intel stake helping the Japanese group beat expectations. SoftBank used its OpenAI stake to borrow $10 billion, vowing to become a leading builder of AI data centers. Dream Finders Homes inked a deal to buy Beazer Homes for about $915 million, following several months of talks. Dream Finders agreed a roughly $916 million deal to buy rival Beazer Homes USA, in what amounts to the same transaction reported across outlets. Nielsen Holdings agreed to buy DoubleVerify in a deal with an enterprise value of about $2.15 billion. Kirin Holdings announced a deal to acquire Toronto-based Jamieson Wellness that values the Canadian vitamins and supplements company at $1.4 billion. Volkswagen AG's majority owner urged Europe's biggest carmaker to move quickly on cutting costs and excess capacity to return to competitiveness. The German automaker's major shareholder called for swift action after impairments on its investment hit $3.5 billion. Honda Motor raised its profit outlook after the motorcycle business, a weak yen and US demand for hybrids lifted quarterly results to a record. The Japanese automaker doubled profit and lifted guidance on a weaker yen, aiming to improve its hybrid EV offerings. Glencore reported a steep jump in profits after a surge in the price of its most important commodities and its trading unit had one of its best ever periods. Glencore also said it has taken a provision on its exposure to iron ore trader Radiant World and confirmed it has stopped doing any new business with the firm. Several Chinese traders and steel mills have stopped dealing with Radiant World and Sapphire Minmetals Corp., according to people familiar with the matter. Jefferies has been told that some of the invoices underpinning its financing to Sapphire Minmetals are not genuine, according to people familiar with the matter. Radiant World is under growing pressure after two of its key banks froze its funds and major miners moved to cut ties with the iron ore trading house.

Commodities and Food Prices

Global food prices edged higher in July to the highest in more than three years as renewed concerns over key grain export corridors compounded adverse weather across major growing regions. The effects of the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz are compounded by expectations of a strong El Niño, which could disrupt harvests across key farming regions. This year's weather pattern is set to be one of the strongest since 1950, raising the risk of food shortages and inflation. China's central bank ramped up additions to its gold reserves last month, pushing a buying streak toward the two-year mark as bullion prices built support above $4,000 an ounce. China's central bank is also stockpiling more gold in Hong Kong, according to people familiar with the matter, supporting the city's push to become a major bullion-trading hub. Gold was on track for its biggest gain in more than six months as dip-buyers supported prices above a key technical level. Gold jumped the most since February as prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Gold futures finished higher for the day as the latest JOLTS report showed the number of job openings little changed in June. Comex gold settled 0.09% lower at $4,242.00, with gold and silver prices dropping and snapping winning streaks. Ghana's central bank incurred losses of $1.9 billion in 2025 under a domestic gold purchase program aimed at boosting the country's foreign-exchange reserves. The price of a key Chinese steel product has dropped to the lowest in almost a decade as a prolonged property downturn sapped construction demand and swelled inventories. India's first-quarter profit for Hindalco jumped 75%, beating estimates after supply disruptions from the Middle East war drove metal prices higher. Nickel declined to the lowest level since mid-July on renewed speculation that Indonesia will grant a higher ore-production quota to one of the country's largest mines. Steep duties on Canadian lumber, wildfires and sawmill closures have cut supply and pushed up prices, even as home-building sputters. Mosaic Co.'s pullbacks in fertilizer production haven't been enough to alleviate the impact of surging input costs from the war in Iran. Indian sugar producers are set to start crushing cane earlier than usual as the government seeks to bolster supplies and rein in record prices ahead of the festival period.

Market Moves and Investor Sentiment

Investor bullishness has become so extreme that it's time to start reducing exposure to risky assets, according to Bank of America strategists, with the sentiment gauge hitting its most extreme bullish level since 2021. The S&P 500 rose 1.8 percent, pushing past its previous peak at the start of June and capping a big turnaround from a recent selloff in technology stocks. The Dow industrials led US stocks mostly lower as oil prices rose amid uncertainty in the Middle East, with the blue-chip average poised to break its winning streak. US stocks fell in a jittery session amid doubts about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US stocks surged and oil fell sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "today or tomorrow." US stocks finished mixed as optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was offset by more volatility in artificial-intelligence wagers. A flare-up in geopolitical risks sent stocks and bonds lower as oil jumped, fueling inflation worries before Friday's jobs report. European shares advanced for a fourth straight day as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with WPP leading gains in the media sector. European stock indexes rose at the open, extending a raft of record highs, with the Stoxx 600 index up and industrial and retail stocks gaining. Australia's stock benchmark climbed to a record on easing concerns over the US-Iran conflict and supportive signals in the domestic economy. Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund posted a record gain in the three months ended in June as global and domestic stocks rallied, offsetting weakness from government bonds. Japan's four largest life insurers reported combined unrealized losses on domestic bonds increased 7% in the three months through June, showing the risks to the industry from soaring interest rates. A sale of 30-year Japanese bonds drew firm demand, delivering some calm to a market that's been buffeted by currency turmoil and worry over the government's debt load. Japan's Topix stock index is poised for its biggest overhaul, with more than 600 companies likely to be gradually removed under new eligibility rules. The US Treasury retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in note and bond auction sizes well into 2027 even as federal borrowing needs climb. The US Treasury will need to increase the sizes of some fixed-rate borrowing programs next year but is unlikely to signal the shift just yet, according to bond dealers. Global bond and currency investors are debating if it's time to dust off last year's "Sell America" trade after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington. Wellington Asset Management has reduced its exposure to US Treasuries, shifting into German bonds after last week's Federal Reserve meeting fueled doubts about its inflation-fighting credentials.