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Treasuries Climb on Falling Oil Prices, Fed Rate Hike Bets

Bloomberg Markets •
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Treasuries saw a rise on Tuesday as diplomatic progress concerning the Iran conflict led to a decrease in oil prices. This development has tempered expectations for multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate increases within the next year.

Specifically, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, fell by about four basis points to 2.33 percent in New York. The decline in oil prices, a key driver of inflation, has eased concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to accelerate its monetary tightening cycle.

Traders are now pricing in a lower probability of two or more rate hikes by the end of 2023. This shift in sentiment reflects a belief that the Fed may adopt a more patient approach to raising rates, especially if inflation remains subdued. The market's focus will now turn to upcoming economic data, including inflation reports and employment figures, for further clues on the Fed's future policy path.