Last updated: August 11, 2026, 8:39 AM ET
Global Markets Brace for Inflation Data as Oil Surges Past $90
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to dominate market sentiment. Oil prices rose to $90 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz hardened, with commercial shipping dwindling. President Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran, further clouding the outlook for a deal to reopen the crucial waterway. Hopes were dashed over the weekend, sending crude higher again. The real squeeze is happening in refineries, where the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russia and China’s fuel export restrictions have taken millions of barrels of refined products off global markets. Brent crude touched $90 as Trump demanded compensation from Iran. The oil rally revived inflation worries, causing Treasury yields to climb and government bonds to retreat. Uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path could weigh on the dollar, but for now the greenback rose. The yen slid toward 160 per dollar, raising intervention concerns. The effect of a recent joint U.S.-Japan intervention is already fading, with the yen giving back roughly half its gains. An opinion piece noted the lack of a "unified voice" among central banks. The dollar continued to strengthen against the yen despite officials’ efforts to prop up the Japanese currency.
Equities: U.S. Futures Lower, European Markets Rise on Energy Stocks
Wall Street futures were mostly lower as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and a peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. weighed on sentiment. U.S. stocks edged back from records, with major indexes turning lower after the S&P 500 finished at an all-time high last week. European indexes were boosted by energy stocks on higher oil prices. Europe is ticking a lot of boxes for investors right now as earnings and economic growth turn out to be surprisingly robust. Resilient Europe has become a winning bet for money managers, defying doom-laden forecasts that the Iran war would tip the region into stagflation. Europe's faltering defense stocks rally is tipped to reignite as the region’s rearmament cycle enters a new stage. The FTSE 100 was steady as gilts dropped on the oil rally. Investing in the "forgotten lands" of Europe is getting the region back on the radar, with the Stoxx 600 up 12% this year.
Energy & Commodities: Oil Rally Spurs Inflation Fears, Aluminum and Gold in Focus
Oil extended its rebound after Trump’s new demands on Iran. U.S. natural gas futures rebounded as near-term weather warmed and Middle East conflict fed global supply concerns. Separately, natural gas surged as hotter outlooks triggered short-covering, with futures spiking by the most in more than two months. Aluminum extended its rally to a seven-week high after a Brazilian plant cut output to 50%. Gold was broadly flat ahead of key U.S. inflation data, but eyes a $4,500 target as technical momentum builds. Gold gained amid a shift in Fed expectations and central bank buying. Precious metals pushed higher to start the week, with gold adding 0.5% and silver gaining 2.8%. Gold pulled back from a two-month peak ahead of the U.S. inflation report. Copper shipments from Indonesia suffered delays after a smelter outage at the Grasberg mine. Chile granted an unprecedented reprieve to state copper miner Codelco, which has seen production slump and debt surge. A French trader warned of sugar oversupply despite a futures rally. Trump’s anti-wind crusade is boosting U.S. gas as the government redirects wind development funds toward fossil fuels. AI will boost oil and gas production more than green energy, a report found. Iran’s oil terminals have appeared largely idle as the U.S. maintains a naval blockade. China’s independent refiners may boost Iranian crude buying as stockpiles dwindle. The Saudis delayed restart of the Jazan refinery after an attack. A Glencore-backed group looks to rescue cobalt refiner Sherritt.
Fixed Income & Currencies: Yields Rise on Inflation Fears, Yen Weakens
Bond markets soured on rising oil prices as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal faded, pushing Treasury yields higher. The U.S. high-grade bond market saw the most issuers since January, with 19 firms storming the market. IBM raised C$2.75 billion in its first Canada bond sale since 2012. A $117 million bond deal for a Los Angeles performing arts school marked the largest private school muni deal in two years. TIPS bonds offer a rare buying opportunity with real yields attractive. The yuan may resume its march against the dollar next month as seasonal factors lift the Chinese currency. The Singapore dollar was steady, supported by stronger-than-expected 2Q GDP growth. Traders are piling into Taiwan dollar options to bet on a rebound. The euro is facing volatility as the Fed’s uncertain rate path could weaken the dollar. Deutsche Bank became the first European clearing bank for the renminbi, as China seeks to increase international use of its currency. The renminbi’s hardest mile is only now beginning as turning it into a global reserve asset will be hard.
Corporate Earnings & Deal Making
Intel investors are banking on a comeback as the spillover of AI mania transforms demand. CoreWeave shares have been on a roll; its earnings forecast is key to stopping another selloff. Cardinal Health logged mixed sales but sees growth in the new year. On Holding tempered its outlook as running-shoe sales underwhelmed. Smithfield Foods cut its outlook as sales fell. Chicken surplus is squeezing poultry companies, but also lowering grocery bills. Diageo looks to revive three lagging liquor icons. Domino’s is set to release a new individual-size pizza for solo diners. Hims & Hers boosted its revenue target despite swinging to a loss. Rocket Lab narrowed its loss as revenue climbed. AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed revenue outlook as its satellite network expands. Boeing sold three autonomous flight subsidiaries to Archer Aviation in exchange for a 16.5% stake.
In deals, Hanwha offered to buy the builder of U.S. Navy ships, Austal USA, for about $1 billion. TPG agreed to buy South Korea’s Lotte Rental for $925 million. Adani Group landed an $800 million data center loan as U.S. charges were dropped. DayOne Data Centers confidentially filed for a $5 billion IPO. A Chinese robot maker’s IPO was 5,500 times oversubscribed by retail investors. Shein pitched its IPO to investors at a sub-$30bn valuation, a 70% drop from four years ago. Nvidia is working with Wall Street to assemble a $500bn funding package for AI infrastructure. Wall Street wants another half-trillion dollars for the AI boom. Strategy Inc. sold more bitcoin to bolster its cash stockpile. The SEC exempted data-center bonds from key securitization rules.
Emerging Markets & Geopolitical Risks
Turkish funds urged action as stock swings threaten MSCI status. India’s retail traders lost $9.6 billion in equity derivatives, though down from last year. India equity fund flows eased in July but small caps remained hot. Wipro’s exit from India’s Nifty 50 reflects the waning clout of Indian IT giants. The Nifty 50 inclusion of BSE could bring passive flows of about $741 million. Larsen & Toubro plans to manufacture rare-earth magnets in India. Tencent’s Work Buddy sparks AI turnaround hopes after a stock rout. Vietnam bets on Korean-style chaebols to boost growth. China’s auto market weakened further in July. The Hong Kong tech index is set for an overhaul with more firms and AI focus. Hong Kong is also set to include trading firms in “big bang” tax reforms. Colombia’s inflation unexpectedly slowed, easing rate pressure. A major earthquake struck Colombia, killing at least 111 people and testing its new president. Adnoc L&S posted a record quarterly profit despite regional disruption. A Chicken glut is dragging down meatpackers and lowering grocery bills. JBS heir will become CEO, returning control to the Batista family. Samsung SDI bought GM’s stake in a U.S. battery JV. 777 Partners filed for bankruptcy after creditors’ liquidation push. Braskem creditors pushed Petrobras for capital as a deal deadline looms. BlocPower, a clean energy darling, is at risk of collapse. Meta is betting big on open AI. OpenAI’s head of ethics left less than a year after joining, amid safety concerns. Sanders called for AI companies to pause development to avoid disaster.
Regulatory & Political Developments
The FDA ordered food-ingredient disclosure and delayed RFK Jr.’s ultraprocessed crackdown. New food rules require companies to notify regulators of new ingredients. States are scrutinizing voter rolls as election security debates heat up. A Tesla-SpaceX merger could give Elon Musk a shortcut to his $1 trillion payday, with a critical clause wiping out performance targets. Shareholder proposal filings are on the wane. The SEC alleged a fund adviser misled investors in pre-IPO schemes. Goldman staff were named as suspects in a Brazil investigation over a shareholder dispute. Gautam Adani won dismissal of U.S. securities fraud charges, ending legal woes. EU border checks have doubled airport waiting times. Britain’s answer to OpenAI, a 30-person start-up called Cosine, has UK government backing. Banks’ refusal to take on crypto firms risks stunting the UK industry, lawmakers said. The BoE needs more parliamentary attention for accountability. Carbon tax will hit EU budget airlines hard. German truckers take the load as drought hits Rhine shipping. AstraZeneca’s $400bn tie-up with Bristol Myers unravelled. Tony Blair’s son seeks funding for a defence tech start-up. Liverpool FC approached by a Jeff Bezos investor group for a stake. FanDuel and DraftKings hedge their bets with a predictions pivot. Phillips 66 announced a 900-mile pipeline from Texas to Phoenix and Los Angeles. Dominio’s new pizza targets solo diners. Trump Media reported a deep second-quarter loss of $238.1 million. U.S. small business confidence rose to its highest level since August 2025, with the optimism index at 99.8. Morgan Stanley will facilitate a $1.5 trillion infrastructure initiative. The Fed’s Hammack said a number of rate hikes may be needed. Investors abandoned hedges to chase soaring stocks. The AI stock heavy ETF risks spread to the broader market. Healthcare investing is now an AI short in disguise. The AI threat to India’s IT jobs machine is real, as the country bets big on tech services but disruption is coming. Americans are tapping record home equity to pay credit card debt as bills mount. Mortgage king Mat Ishbia lost $600 million and needed a rescue from Oaktree. Chicago hired a Fitch senior director as its new CFO amid exits. A French trader Sucden warned of sugar oversupply. Grain LNG appointed Peter Abdo as CEO.
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Why Meta is betting big on open AI.