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Wall Street Defies Rate Threat After Jobs Data

Bloomberg Markets •
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The global bond selloff is proving no wrecking ball for Wall Street, repricing the cost of money without setting off the usual scramble out of risk assets. Friday supplied the latest test of that resilience. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report delivered another blow to Treasuries as traders stepped up bets that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates at the next meeting on Sept. 16. The dollar rose anew and the S&P 500 closed lower, though the index still managed to finish the week in positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 also ended the week higher.

What’s remarkable is how little of the disruption has escaped the bond market. Credit premiums remain subdued and downside protection across risky assets is still relatively cheap. Even the strain in market plumbing has been concentrated: JPMorgan Chase & Co. finds sharply deteriorating liquidity in Treasuries but little comparable stress in stock-index futures or corporate-bond ETFs. Strong growth and profits have provided much of the insulation.

“Financial conditions remain easy and credit spreads remain remarkably tight,” said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “Companies don’t appear to be too fazed by the current level of corporate borrowing costs when their earnings are growing by more than 20% on a year-on-year basis.” JPMorgan finds a similar disconnect between the price and availability of money: borrowing costs have jumped, but lending and money creation haven’t retreated with them.

For Dan Suzuki, global investment strategist at i Capital, the bigger danger is acceleration. “A much sharper rise would likely force investors to reduce risk more aggressively.” Meanwhile, Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle & Co., pointed to weaker hiring in information and financial services, and greater strength in construction, manufacturing and utilities. Attention now turns to inflation: another hot reading would strengthen the case for a rate increase.