Monaco is among several nations poised to exit the Financial Action Task Force’s dirty money watchlist next month, marking a change in fortune for the city-state home to the world’s highest concentration of millionaires and billionaires. The French Riviera principality was placed on the FATF’s gray list in June 2024 amid heightened scrutiny over shortcomings in tackling illegal money flows. However, officials have since found significant progress.

Bulgaria and Ivory Coast are also expected to come off the list. Bulgaria’s original designation in 2023 came at the peak of negotiations to enter the euro area, but FATF officials have praised improvements in risk-based supervision and virtual asset controls. Ivory Coast’s progress on bank supervision and beneficial ownership verification has drawn plaudits, including a multi-year prison sentence handed to a local influencer on money-laundering charges.

The official outcome isn’t due until the final day of the FATF’s next plenary in Paris on Oct. 30. Listings are determined based on consensus among the group’s membership, including the US, UK, European Commission, China, Japan and India. The watchdog’s recommendations are closely tracked by global investors wary of conducting business in places deficient in anti-money laundering regulations.

Jurisdictions on the list require closer monitoring, and the designation may cast serious doubt over the integrity of their financial systems. A 2021 IMF report found gray-listed countries experienced a large and statistically significant reduction in capital inflows. The FATF’s October plenary will mark the first under the presidency of Giles Thomson, who has prioritized combating fraud including scam compounds.