Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 12, 2026, 11:34 AM ET

Macro & Policy

A benign reading of the consumer-price index is expected to reduce the urgency around a September rate rise, though bond traders are pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a hike. The trend-chasing funds’ record short bet against global bonds raises the stakes for the report. Meanwhile, India’s inflation stayed within the Reserve Bank’s target band, reinforcing expectations that policymakers will keep rates unchanged. The Japanese yen’s weakness remains a growing concern for policymakers, and US household delinquencies improved slightly in the second quarter, pointing to a resilient consumer. However, the labor market slowed as employers grew wary of hiring. The El Niño climate event is likely to be one of the strongest on record, threatening global output. Bank of America committed $250bn to US projects in a boost to the “America First” agenda, while Switzerland pushes ahead with a post-Credit Suisse crackdown that may give its regulator greater powers.

Equities

US stock futures extended gains after inflation data came in line with expectations, clearing the way for an earnings-led tech rally. Ed Yardeni raised his S&P 500 view to 8,400 on “fabulous earnings momentum,” though some warn that potential “peak earnings” could set the stage for disappointment. Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund delivered a record first-half return, though its CEO said he’s more nervous. New York City’s five pensions beat their investment target with a 13% gain. The AI stock heavy ETF risks are spreading to the broader equity market as a growing share of leverage rides on the same AI names. Optical component makers’ shares are surging again on rising confidence in AI spending, while red-hot power stocks are losing steam amid a data center backlash. Vestas Wind Systems shares jumped 18.5% on second-quarter earnings growth and an upgraded margin guidance. Foxconn’s AI hardware sales drove a 35% profit beat, and CoreWeave’s forecast is seen as key to stopping another selloff. Tencent’s AI spending snuffed out its profit-growth run, while Sanrio shares plunged most since 2014 after a first-quarter earnings miss. ABN Amro Bank boosted guidance as profit jumped 13%, and Brinker International revenue climbed to $1.54 billion on Chili’s growth. Tata Group erased $4.5 billion in value after Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran said he will step down when his term ends in February 2027. Godrej Consumer Products shares plunged after its CEO resigned with immediate effect, and Sanrio shares tumbled as much as 20%. In Europe, European indexes were boosted by energy stocks on higher oil prices, while the FTSE 100 slipped as UK stocks fell. Vestas shares also soared on an order boost and share buyback announcement. DMG Mori is aiming to raise ¥48.2 billion through a global share sale, and Turing, a self-driving startup, plans a US office and targets a $10 billion IPO valuation. Lovable, a vibe-coding startup, hit a $13 billion valuation in a new funding round, while Shein’s IPO is being pitched at a sub-$30 billion valuation. Boeing will fold its flying-taxi venture into Archer Aviation in exchange for shares. A buying opportunity is forming around S&P skeptics’ refusal to give up, while volatility has tumbled as markets shrug off Middle East risks. Tractor Supply stock climbed to record highs after strong earnings, and Cava Group’s second-quarter profit beat on climbing customer traffic.

Fixed Income

Bond traders kept their cointoss wager on a September Fed hike after tame CPI data, pricing in roughly 50% odds. Eurozone government bond yields rose as investors exercised caution ahead of the US inflation report. South Korea’s 30-year government bond yield hit a record on elevated energy prices and weaker demand from life insurers. These bonds offer a rare buying opportunity with real yields near 3%, according to analysts. Pimco’s Seidner says angst over Fed credibility is unwarranted and that current US bond yields look attractive. The wealth management industry faces a $3 trillion problem as investors keep too much cash in money-market funds. The US fired on a ship that it says violated the Iran blockade, adding to geopolitical risk. Bond yields inflated the Powerball jackpot to $1 billion, while business development companies are paying more to borrow as rates rise. The SEC exempted data-center bonds from key securitization rules, potentially opening the door for more debt sales. A performing arts school in Los Angeles is borrowing $117 million in the municipal bond market, the largest private school deal in two years. Nvidia’s credit risk eased after its CEO clarified the $500 billion AI chip financing plan, but Wall Street and Nvidia are building an exotic money pipeline that critics say has risks. The largest private school bond deal in two years hit the muni market.

Currencies

Brazil election jitters are prompting investors to pare exposure to one of this year’s most rewarding carry trades. The world-beating rand carry trade is luring foreign investors to South African bonds at the fastest pace since January. Yen intervention by the US and Japan put China’s yuan under more pressure to appreciate, potentially draining support for growth. The yen’s weakness has become a growing issue, and intervention has limited impact. Yen traders are ramping up options activity ahead of US inflation data. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.001% to 96.15. US inflation data and the Middle East conflict could trigger more dollar volatility, Commerzbank said. The yuan’s march against the dollar may resume next month on seasonal factors. Emerging currencies weakened as the US-Iran standoff lifted the dollar. China tapped Deutsche Bank as the first non-Chinese lender to settle yuan transactions in Europe.

Commodities

Russia’s daily oil output lagged its OPEC+ quota by almost a million barrels a day in July as Ukraine attacked its oil infrastructure. Black Sea oil tanker rates surged to a record on a flurry of drone attacks. OPEC cut its oil-demand forecast again as Hormuz talks stalled. Saudi Arabia reported a million-barrel output rebound in July. Oil extended gains on skepticism about a Hormuz deal, and oil surged with no deal in sight. The Hormuz standoff derailed oil supply recovery and deepened the demand slump, the IEA said. The UAE is shuttling Iraqi oil through Hormuz to refiners in Asia. The US asked Ukraine to stop strikes on tankers using a Russian port, while JD Vance urged Ukraine to halt those strikes as Washington grew alarmed. China’s independent refiners may boost Iran oil buying as stockpiles dwindle. Gold rose ahead of US CPI figures, and gold advanced as traders watched for rate-hike clues. US natural gas futures rebounded as near-term weather warmed, and US natural gas surged on hotter outlooks triggering short-covering. European gas prices surged as Hormuz deal prospects remained murky. A Colombian earthquake disrupted a key coffee export road, pausing operations at the main port. China’s stubborn commodity markets defy the economic rulebook by surviving on lower prices, complicating Beijing’s struggle with weak inflation. Saudi Arabia delayed restarting its Jazan refinery to late August after an attack. Trump’s low-key pivot leaves Hormuz oil in limbo, prolonging uncertainty. The latest oil market analysis shows oil holding gains over skepticism about a Hormuz deal.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market stocks rose on a tech rally, and emerging-market company bonds outperformed US peers as borrowing costs fell to the lowest relative level since January. India’s small and mid-cap funds remain hot with investors. India’s options trading volume dropped 27% due to a new closing auction mechanism. JPMorgan boosted its Singapore stocks target to 7,000, citing robust economic growth. GoTo faces potential removal from MSCI indexes after a share plunge. SK Hynix and Samsung shares gained on a report that Temasek plans to invest. Shoprite Holdings jumped the most in 11 months as e-commerce boosted profit. Turkish funds are urging authorities to crack down on unusual trading that threatens MSCI status. Wipro’s exit from India’s Nifty 50 reflects the waning clout of Indian IT giants. Braskem’s bondholders are pressing Petrobras for a capital injection ahead of a bankruptcy deadline. The Philippine central bank is ready to tighten further to guide inflation back to target. A Chinese robot maker’s IPO was 5,500 times oversubscribed by retail investors, while Singapore Airlines lost almost $800 million on its Air India bet. Lloyds Metals was authorized to restart a giant Papua New Guinea copper mine closed for almost 40 years. The rand carry trade is luring investors to South African bonds at the fastest pace since January. Activist Elliott named candidates for the board of Australia’s biggest gold miner Northern Star. Barrick Mining named a new CEO for its operations outside North America ahead of an IPO. Eskom is targeting the data centre gold rush with its power surplus.

Structured Finance & Credit

Business development companies are paying more to borrow as the Fed continues to hike. A bad trade pushed US mortgage giant UWM into a $2bn lifeline from Oaktree. Private equity is stuck with 33,575 unsold businesses as exits dry up. Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire ETF provider Neos for up to $2.3 billion. Thrive Holdings, an AI-focused buyer of service firms, raised $2 billion from backers including SoftBank. Germany seeks bids for nationalized energy firm Uniper by Sept. 21. The SEC exempted data-center bonds from key securitization rules, potentially opening the door for more debt sales. Nvidia’s credit risk eased after its CEO clarified the $500 billion AI chip financing plan. Activist Anson Funds is urging Lionsgate to put itself up for sale. A real estate fund run by Deutsche Finance Group is set to file for insolvency after its Boston life science investment soured.

Market Structure & Regulation

MEMX filed to list prediction market-style bets on earnings, looking to compete with prediction markets. New York City launched a sweeping investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi over their marketing practices. South Korea will require mock trading for single-stock leveraged ETFs to tighten rules on risky products. London needs capital to revive its struggling public markets, the LSE’s deputy CEO said. India’s options trading dropped 27% after a new closing auction mechanism upended strategies. The FTSE 100 live showed gilts dropping as an oil rally revived inflation worries. European indexes started the week mixed with the Stoxx 600 and DAX extending record highs while the CAC 40 and FTSE 100 were lower. Tech, media and telecom roundups highlighted TSMC, ASML and Core Weave. Auto and transport roundups featured TKMS, Austal and Yangzijiang Maritime.