The data center backlash is complicating the picture for power plant owners. Who are the winners of the AI power race? For some time, owners of existing power plants—such as Vistra and Constellation Energy—seemed well positioned. With demand growth outstripping new power supply, incumbent plants could reap higher prices without heavy capital risk.

But recent regulatory changes are muddying this bullish narrative. Power plant owners have had a rough year on the stock market. Constellation Energy is down 21% year to date, Vistra is down 10%, and NRG Energy has shed 25%. By contrast, power equipment makers have had a blockbuster year. GE Vernova and Caterpillar have gained 55% and 47%, respectively. Shares of Howmet Aerospace, which makes blades for those companies’ turbines, are up 37%. Solaris Energy, a provider of off‑grid power for data centers, is up 28%.

The rotation highlights changes in two major power markets, Texas and the mid‑Atlantic, that have tilted in favor of new power capacity with mixed implications for existing plant owners.