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Higher Yields in Short-Term Treasurys

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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2-year Treasury notes are attractively priced at the moment. Nobody likes to catch falling knives, as the old Wall Street saying goes. Except that with shorter-term bonds, at least you’re wearing some protective gear. Traders seem to be struggling to find the bottom for Treasurys. The past week saw yields on the 10-year note surge beyond previous high-water marks, first 5%, then 5.1% and even 5.2%. The move was also accompanied by a jump in bond volatility, which had still been subdued until the last few sessions. This is a sign that markets are becoming more jumpy.

However, unlike with stocks, bonds offer some cushion, even if investors get their market calls wrong. Investors get a coupon payment that helps offset the decline in value the bond might experience if market yields rise. In other words, even if a bond’s price drops, it can still end up with a positive return. Plus, if a bond is going to mature in less than a couple of years, that adds another layer of insulation.

Currently, 2-year Treasurys are yielding over 4.9%. That isn’t much less than what the 10-year Treasury is paying at over 5.2%. Longer-term bonds have some additional yield built in for less quantifiable risks like long-term inflation or a surge in future issuance. Buying those bonds requires investors to have more conviction given the more significant risk profile involved, says Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. For shorter-term bonds, though, it is a somewhat simpler equation.

Following the Fed’s rate increase in September, the current target overnight rate is 3.75% to 4%. The Fed probably won’t stop there, barring some surprisingly negative economic or inflation data. Fed officials themselves are currently forecasting only one additional hike this year. Meanwhile, the interest-rate derivatives market is pricing in even more hikes in this cycle, expecting a so-called terminal 4.85% fed-funds rate by September 2027, according to TD’s Goldberg. Either way, the relatively high yield on two-year notes and their shorter lifespan mean that it would take something quite extreme to generate overall losses for investors.