Oil prices and Treasury yields are the dominant combination again in markets today. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields settled yesterday at 5.241%, a 19-year record, and climbed to over 5.26% early today before sliding back slightly. Contracts for Brent crude futures topped $100 a barrel this morning, before retreating below $98, as oil exports from the Middle East rebound and Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz loosens.

The increase in oil flows, which are estimated to be back to 80% of their prewar levels, should help ease the energy supply crunch that has dialed up inflationary pressures worldwide. But it raises the risk that Tehran will resort to military escalation to bolster its position, as my colleagues report. President Trump said yesterday he had offered Iran nothing to end the war, throwing cold water on any lingering hope of a quick resolution.

Higher yields, meanwhile, are also pushing the dollar higher. The dollar has gained 1.5% against a basket of other currencies this September, following two months of declines. U.S. stock futures are muted. Dow industrials look set to open a touch lower, and Nasdaq-100 futures are edging up.