US manufacturing is showing signs of revival, with factory activity surging to its strongest in over four years in July. So far this year, production has edged higher, around 30,000 new jobs created, and industrial titans like Siemens, Amazon, and SK Hynix unveiled hefty investment plans. For the Maga movement, this is evidence that President Donald Trump’s protectionism-powered “renaissance” is taking shape.

However, this claim is a disingenuous reading of the data. American manufacturing is resurgent despite the president’s protectionist measures, not because of them. Since Trump’s second term began, uniquely strong demand in two sectors has underpinned the expansion: computer and electronic products, including chips and servers for the AI frenzy, and aerospace, where aircraft backlogs at Boeing are being filled and global conflict swells defence orders.

Crucially, AI and aerospace inputs have benefited from significant carve-outs from tariff schemes. By contrast, sectors facing high duties—textiles, furniture, wood—have contributed little or shrunk. Manufacturers’ earnings reports repeatedly cite the squeeze of duties on profit margins, both directly and via domestic supply chains. The revival has dovetailed with a pick-up in imports, not a broad reshoring boom.

The timing is damning: the production jump coincided with a drop in the effective duty rate and easing trade uncertainty after the Supreme Court struck down most “liberation day” tariffs in February. Tariffs have delivered few benefits; the small job gain may stem from insulation in a few sectors. Annual private factory construction spending has continued to fall. “The AI build-out, aircraft back-orders, tax deductions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and even the Iran war are driving the surge,” says Scott Lincicome. “Tariffs have mostly been a headwind.” New duties on semiconductors would only impede a key sector.