Official labour market data shows little evidence of a clear link between AI exposure and employment growth at the economy-wide level. However, analyses of very fine-grained administrative data find weaker employment growth in the very most AI-exposed occupations, such as software and customer services. The most consistent finding across different analyses is that displacement is concentrated among the most junior roles.

New research by European researchers José Azar, Mireia Giné and Javier Sanz-Espín, applying the same analysis to both fine-grained proprietary data and official labour market statistics, found no evidence that the most AI-exposed occupations have seen a decline in employment relative to less-exposed jobs. However, it did find a negative impact of AI exposure on wages and job-to-job transitions, suggesting AI may be eroding worker bargaining power and status. Depending on the dataset used, wages for the most AI-exposed workers are down between five and 10 per cent relative to the least-exposed occupations, with the steepest declines among the most inexperienced workers.

Notably, AI-exposed workers have become almost a third less likely to move between jobs compared to unexposed counterparts. The authors note moving between employers is a key source of wage growth, meaning reduced mobility may further suppress earnings. This study acts as a potential missing link between employer retooling and dearth of hard evidence on actual job displacement.

Weak wage growth and reduced worker mobility while employment levels hold steady suggests AI may be beginning to erode the value of certain skills and jobs, but had yet to show up in outright job losses given how much slower hiring and particularly firing respond to incremental technological shifts.