Last updated: September 11, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil prices kept climbing as Middle East tensions mounted, with diesel touching $6 a gallon on fears that fighting between the United States and Iran could widen into a full-scale war. The diesel milestone marked the first time the fuel has ever traded above $6 a gallon in the US, raising the risk of further energy-driven inflation just ahead of peak demand season. Brent held above $107 a barrel after clashes between Yemen-based Houthi militants and Saudi-backed forces intensified, stoking fears of deeper supply disruptions. US crude futures rose to their highest level in nearly four months as increased fighting across the Persian Gulf region lifted supply worries. Early Asian trade saw oil extend gains on escalating concerns over supply disruptions, while crude surged past $105 as stocks and bonds wobbled, with bond yields rising and equities falling for a fourth consecutive session.
Fuel Squeeze and Shipping
US diesel futures surged above $5 a gallon for the first time since April 2022, the latest sign of a deepening global fuel squeeze as wars disrupt supplies and rapidly erode stockpiles. Oil-product exports through Hormuz are slowly recovering, but the pace has not been enough to prevent a surge in fuel prices that is squeezing consumers worldwide. Saudi Arabia's oil exports have fallen to a 13-year low with few good options for safely shipping crude. The kingdom reported to OPEC that production plunged again last month to the lowest since 1990 as renewed US-Iran hostilities squeezed export routes. Riyadh cut output to a yearly low after rebels announced a "maritime embargo" against the kingdom's exports in July. OPEC lowered its 2026 oil demand forecast to 380,000 barrels a day, as Saudi production slumped and Houthi threats disrupted vital export routes. Iraq is holding a tender to hire two or more supertankers for transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the latest evidence that regional producers want greater control of shipping.
Bonds and Rates
A global bond selloff pushed benchmark 10-year Treasury yields toward the closely watched 5% level ahead of US inflation data that stands to shape expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasury yields surged as spiking oil fanned inflation fears and the Treasury Department bought fewer bonds than expected in its first expanded buyback operation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns about the bond market after Thursday's smaller-than-expected buyback sent yields to multiyear highs. Traders won the first round in their yield showdown with Bessent, leaving investors underwhelmed by the buyback. The Treasury secretary's $6bn bond operation proved insufficient to stem the recent surge in borrowing costs, investors warned. The bond selloff reignited as oil jumped to $109, with US yields reaching highs of the day after the buyback undershot its target. US rate-rise fears rippled through global bond markets as Houthi advances pushed oil higher while markets awaited Friday's inflation data.
Global Yields
Japanese government bonds slumped on Friday, tracking a US selloff after escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices higher. Australian bond yields jumped to their highest since 2011, tracking an overnight slump in Treasuries. A selloff in European bonds extended after ECB President Christine Lagarde flagged inflation risks, pushing German yields to a 17-year high. Municipal bond yields jumped as much as 15 basis points, with the longest-dated securities reaching the highest since 2011 amid rising Treasury rates and heavy new issuance. US yields at multiyear highs stoked demand for a 30-year bond auction as surging oil bolstered the case for a Fed hike. Rising borrowing costs threaten to disrupt the stock market and slow the economy as the 10-year yield nears 5%. America's captive creditors are dwindling, leaving the US to pay a higher cost to induce more price-sensitive investors to buy Treasuries. Stanley Druckenmiller said borrowing costs remain "a little low" despite the surge in yields, calling Fed officials who argue rates are restrictive "just ridiculous."
Equities
US stocks fell for a fourth straight day, their longest slide since June, as oil's relentless climb and fresh evidence of sticky inflation boosted Treasury yields and rate-hike bets. The fourth straight session of declines came as US oil topped $100 a barrel and August inflation data revealed the toll of energy costs. Asian stocks and bonds fell after the oil surge sparked a US selloff, while inflation data reinforced bets on an imminent Fed hike. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.8%, dragged by chip stocks as fears about the Iran war and rising energy costs grew. Wall Street is betting on a split Congress in the midterms, with the best outcome for markets a divided legislature. The bull market has a rule for how it ends — the economy rolls over or the Fed tightens until something breaks — and while neither is in place, rate risk is creeping back.
Currencies and Gold
The dollar rose as strong US producer prices and an oil rally boosted bets on Fed hikes this year, putting more focus on Friday's inflation report. The WSJ Dollar Index rose 0.35% to 95.18, snapping a three-trading-day losing streak. Asian currencies consolidated against the dollar but may be weighed by safe-haven demand for the greenback. The yen's recent rally marks the beginning of a broader correction in the currency's long-running undervaluation, according to Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. Gold rose in early Asian trade as investors awaited US CPI data for clues on the Fed's rate path, DHF Capital said. Gold settled lower as a pickup in August producer price inflation raised expectations of a Fed rate increase next week. The metal was set for a weekly drop, its third straight, as surging oil and the latest inflation report bolstered the case for a hike.
Central Banks
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate to 2.5% in a bid to quell price pressures spurred by the war in the Middle East. Japan's producer prices for corporate goods rose faster than expected in August, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising rates. US Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention risks damaging the BOJ's credibility, bankers warned, with his claims of insider knowledge potentially eroding perceptions of the Japanese central bank's independence. Peru left borrowing costs unchanged at 4.25% for a 12th straight month as policymakers bet the recent inflation spike will prove temporary. Fed officials have signaled they are prepared to raise rates if inflation doesn't improve soon, though their main policy tool may do little to restrain some forces.
Economic Data
The UK economy unexpectedly grew 0.4% in July on the back of an AI investment boom, a resilient start to the third quarter as surging oil reignited inflation fears. The FTSE 100 tracked the surprise growth reading. US crude stockpiles fell by 391,000 barrels last week, against analyst expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel decline, while production hit a record. Natural gas futures settled modestly higher after the EIA reported a fourth straight below-average storage build, though the 40 Bcf injection landed above expectations. US imports carried on through an extended peak season, though encouraging economic indicators did little to lighten American consumers' mood.
Commodities and Metals
Iron ore headed for its steepest weekly loss since June as steel mill margins deteriorated and hot metal output stayed seasonally weak. Copper headed for its first weekly loss since June on concern the US is pushing back a decision on import tariffs. A tin refiner backed by US Department of Defense funding agreed to buy as much as 100% of the metal concentrates produced by an Australian miner under a multiyear offtake. Chinese wafer prices steadied after dropping the prior week, with only limited transaction volumes, according to the China Silicon Industry Association. Coal-fired generation fell 11% in the first half of 2026 despite Trump's push, as cheaper sources such as natural gas grew. Five years after world leaders agreed to "phase down" coal, the fuel is more widely used than ever as the Iran war pushes global consumption to record highs.
Deals and Corporate Finance
Intesa Sanpaolo shareholders approved issuing new shares to finance the €35.4 billion ($41.2 billion) takeover bid for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. TotalEnergies and its partners plan to invest $10 billion in Angola's oil sector over the next five years to sustain production. An arm of Hitachi is among suitors bidding for part of Swarco, the traffic solutions provider owned by members of Austria's Swarovski family. Vantage Data Centers is seeking $2 billion in loans from Pimco and PGIM, tapping new investors for AI infrastructure as Wall Street banks limit exposure. The Pentagon is in talks for a $5 billion loan for AI infrastructure company Fluidstack, advised by the bank started by Palmer Luckey. Clay, an AI sales tool provider, raised $115 million at a $7.1 billion valuation in a round led by Wellington Management. Brooks Automation confidentially filed for a US IPO; private-equity firm THL owns the company. Windshield giant Belron is reaching out to investment banks for roles on a potential Amsterdam IPO that could be one of Europe's largest in years.
Banking and Asset Management
HSBC began searching for a new finance chief after Pam Kaur told the board she intends to stand down next year. The CFO's departure comes less than two years after her appointment. Franklin Templeton is moving past the Western Asset crisis, extending its franchise across public and private markets toward $1.8 trillion in assets. Maya Funaki, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at RBC Blue Bay Asset Management, is leaving the firm, according to a spokesperson for Royal Bank of Canada's investment arm. Jane Street became the leading block trader in Asia after Segantii's demise, expanding into areas once dominated by hedge funds. ProShares, the ETF shop, wants to launch interval funds and target individual, self-directed traders. Jack Bogle predicted Vanguard's market plateau, and 50 years after its index fund debut the firm's share of the fund industry has reached a milestone. UK banks don't have a windfall to tax, with the big four in decent shape but hardly world beaters.
Private Markets
Private equity remains in its "Waiting for Godot" era, with a subdued mood at the industry's annual conference in Paris. Some of the world's biggest investors are pushing money managers to disclose more on AI-related holdings, as firms including Apollo and Blackstone face scrutiny. A private equity firm's aggressive reputation during corporate distress carries a steeper price: 60 basis points, to be precise. Emeria's largest creditors signed non-disclosure agreements barring them from trading the French real estate services provider's debt as talks over a €3 billion restructuring step up. Australia's prudential regulator asked banks and pensions about their exposure to private credit funding, the latest sign authorities want more information on risks.
Corporate Earnings and Moves
Oracle's data centre revenue surged as its AI strategy accelerated, with faster sales growth suggesting progress in its push to compete in AI infrastructure. Oracle posted higher profit and revenue on continued cloud infrastructure strength, offsetting falling software revenue. Adobe hit 1 billion monthly active users and raised its full-year outlook, projecting adjusted earnings of $24.45 to $24.50 a share and revenue of $26.576 billion to $26.626 billion. JetBlue cut its third-quarter capacity outlook after weather and air traffic control disruptions snarled northeastern US operations, sending shares lower. The airline said it expects available seat miles to rise 1.5% to 3.5% in the third quarter, versus prior guidance of 3% to 6% growth. Macy's raised its full-year outlook again, partly driven by higher prices on its products as it bets on pricier goods to win wealthy shoppers. Designer Brands boosted its outlook on a positive start to the third quarter, recording higher profit despite lower second-quarter sales. AB Foods shares slid after the conglomerate cautioned on its sugar and grocery units ahead of the split of its food operations and Primark. Boston Scientific restored key operations after a cyberattack, saying products are moving through distribution at or above normal levels. SoftBank Group's rally exposes risks for investors with short positions that have risen to a one-year high.
Tech and AI Infrastructure
DeepSeek's latest AI model raised doubts about demand strength, giving fund managers wading back into South Korean memory stocks a fresh gut check. Shares of Shanghai Enflame Technology more than doubled on their trading debut, but the real test for the company and three other "little GPU tigers" has yet to come. Anthropic disclosed five examples of users circumventing controls and trying to obfuscate bioweapon research, saying it stopped scientists potentially developing such weapons. The AI start-up added it could not determine whether the research was legitimate or nefarious, leading it to shut down the work. Latham & Watkins bought Nvidia servers to set up in-house AI systems, customizing open-weight models as an alternative to OpenAI and Anthropic. A Hugging Face co-founder said commercial AI tools failed to defend the platform against an attack, arguing the solution lies in open-weight models. A separate account of OpenAI's hack of Hugging Face drew the same conclusion about open-weight defenses.
AI, Regulation and Risk
The open-model threat to AI hyperscalers remains an open question for the industry. Rogo, Wall Street's favorite AI startup, set its sights on wealth management after a new round of strategic investments, already used by major investment banks. Employee token limits have become commonplace among companies managing AI costs, but putting them in place can be tricky. Former EPA officials warned that air pollution from gas-fired power plants running data centers is expected to add at least $20 billion in annual health care costs by 2028. The public backlash against AI data centers is growing, with Big Tech's second attempt at winning over Americans faring worse than the first. A controversy around OpenAI's latest math proof raised fears that AI tools could take valuable insights from one user and hand them to another. Tristan Buckmaster, an NYU mathematician, was on the path toward an important proof when one AI giant used its resources to get there first. Ruchir Sharma explained why America's mounting debt could become the AI boom's biggest threat. UK proposals following a national consultation call for live monitoring as AI moves deeper into patient care, likening new tools to needing "L-plates." The SaaS sector has shown it can benefit from AI rather than be an easy target, though risks remain. A company's CFO discussed going AI-first and cutting jobs in her rookie year.
Corporate Governance and Activism
South African firms are courting shareholders ahead of annual general meetings after new laws gave investors more power over executive pay and put overseeing directors under greater pressure. Barington Capital, the activist investor with a long retail track record, took another stake in Bath & Body Works and is recommending the personal-care and fragrance chain. Novartis shareholder Artisan Partners said the Swiss drugmaker needs a board shakeup and better dealmaking after shares plunged on three major clinical trial setbacks. Ryanair investors revolted over Michael O'Leary's €150 million pay deal, though the airline boss has defended the package as contingent on meeting stretching targets. Weil Gotshal is losing top dealmaker Michael Aiello and five other partners to Cravath after other recent departures.
UK and Europe
The UK needs as much as £70 billion ($94.5 billion) of investment in its power grid by early next decade, with delays threatening to add billions to customer bills. Virgin Media O2's owners Telefónica and Liberty Global are targeting £600 million in cost cuts, including job reductions, to calm bond investors. England's mayors will be allowed to introduce unlimited tourism taxes, with hotel rooms, bed and breakfasts and Airbnb-type rentals facing a new levy. Emirates secured a fifth landing slot in Germany, allowing the Dubai carrier to finally serve Berlin after decades of lobbying against opposition from Lufthansa. Macron pitched a plan to strengthen Europe's struggling space sector, while the continent keeps buying more Russian gas. Burnham's devolution project needs strong local media so regional leaders can be held accountable to voters. First-time buyers loaded up on mortgage debt after lending rules changed, with high loan-to-income products flying off the shelves since the loosening last year.
Geopolitics and Trade
The EU resumed work on finding legally sound ways to access Moscow bank funds as Kyiv's spending crunch deepens. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's gas assets in a remote Arctic region revealed new risks for the Kremlin's battered energy industry and the global market. Russia's crude output shrank in August, lagging further behind its OPEC+