Private equity’s ‘Waiting for Godot’ era continues as firms hold portfolio companies at unrealistic valuations despite available debt and investor comfort with volatility. The subdued mood at IPEM in Paris and a similar buyout conference in Berlin reflects declining performance after rapid growth, with panel titles questioning what it takes to thrive in complexity. Deal makers say the environment is no longer complex, leaving valuation disconnect as the core issue.

A brighter spot emerged in software, where AI advances and public market sell-offs earlier shuttered dealmaking, but consensus now holds that complex SaaS businesses won’t be disintermediated by AI, with PE-owned software firms still growing earnings and paying down debt. Meanwhile, Arini Capital Management, the London-based investor managing $22bn founded in 2021 by former Credit Suisse trader Hamza Lemssouguer, remains central to Europe’s distressed debt trades. Its master fund gained 27% in 2023, 21% in 2024, and 10% last year, totaling 73% over four years, though its flagship strategy is now down over 8% year-to-date due to losses on positions in Aston Martin and Patrick Drahi’s Altice International, whose debt prices collapsed after creditor-led restructuring pushes.