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Nellie Liang on Treasury Buybacks and Rising Yields

Financial Times Markets •
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Former Treasury under-secretary Nellie Liang critiques Scott Bessent's off-cycle doubling of long-dated Treasury buybacks from $2bn to $4bn. The move, targeting 10- to 30-year maturities, surprised markets because it fell outside the regular quarterly refunding process. Liang notes the buyback programme, reintroduced in 2024 after the March 2020 dysfunction, was designed to support liquidity by purchasing off-the-run securities. However, Bessent's surprise announcement signals concern about rising yields rather than addressing illiquidity.

Liang questions the $4bn impact in a $32tn market, with $5.7tn outstanding in the long-end sector. She argues the effect is primarily signalling, not quantitative. The limiting principle involves debt management trade-offs: shortening maturities reduces long-term costs but increases short-term rollover risk and debt service volatility.

Liang distinguishes this from prior "activist" issuance critiques, calling buybacks targeting yields "much more activist." She emphasizes Treasury cannot create money like the Fed; it must issue short-term bills to fund purchases. Higher yields reflect fiscal trajectory concerns, AI infrastructure debt from hyperscalers, and supply shocks—not Fed regime change under Kevin Warsh. Ultimately, Liang views the move as a call to Congress for sustainable fiscal policy.