Thousands of identical trades. Same size, over and over. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, faces questions about whether its ether futures market volume is real. Beni, a former quantitative trader and co-founder of Stealth Neolab, dug into Kalshi’s public trade data and spotted a $539 million 24-hour volume figure in the ether perpetual market — with the bulk made up of trades sized at exactly $5,500. On multiple days, that single trade size accounted for nearly half of all volume. Beni documented the patterns in real-time. His concern: if Kalshi ran or allowed this behavior, it could amount to market manipulation or fraud. The numbers look strange — $539 million daily volume against open interest of roughly $3.1 million. Kalshi denied it.

The exchange’s head of crypto, who goes by Ico Beast, pushed back. He argued Beni confused Kalshi’s prediction markets with crypto perpetual futures contracts — different mechanics, different rules. Ico Beast also noted rebate programs are standard across major exchanges like CME and Binance. Kalshi recently updated its rebate program, which the CFTC certified on September 16. The program excludes trades flagged for wash trading or self-matching. Kalshi’s chief regulatory officer can revoke access if something looks off.

The CFTC has warned that volume-based incentive programs can push traders toward unnecessary activity. No enforcement action has been taken against Kalshi. Beni said he’s still reviewing additional evidence, and legal experts are going through materials before anything more goes public.

Kalshi’s broader trajectory makes the timing awkward. In June, its bitcoin perpetual market hit $1 billion in volume in days — versus 40 months for prediction markets. Fast growth draws eyes. When eyes land on thousands of identical trades stacked day after day, questions follow. The open interest figure sticks out: a market with $3.1 million in open interest generating $539 million in a single day isn’t normal. That ratio — volume dwarfing open interest by more than 170 — gets regulators asking who’s on the other side.