America gave up its rare earth edge decades ago as cheaper Chinese imports made domestic processing uncompetitive. California's Mountain Pass mine led global production until the late 1980s, but radioactive wastewater spills and China's lower prices forced its closure by 2002. MP Materials restarted mining in 2017, yet the US still imported over two-thirds of its rare earth elements as recently as 2025.

China mined about 60 percent of rare earths for magnets in 2024 and handled 91 percent of separation and refining, giving it immense geopolitical leverage. The US military's F-35 fighter jets and Virginia-class submarines depend on these materials. China demonstrated this leverage with export controls issued in 2025, suspended until Nov. 10, 2026, which it can reinstate to pressure rivals.

Rebuilding a domestic supply chain is slow: the Government Accountability Office estimated 15 years in 2010, and the US lacks the thousands of experienced engineers China employs. Separating rare earth minerals is intensely difficult, and countries controlling processing hold significant political power. The trade-off was understood but didn't appear threatening when China was still rising.