Geopolitics remains a focus for bond markets after Iran intensified attacks on tankers in Hormuz and oil prices rose. Yields on U.S. and European government bonds rose, with the 30-year yield climbing to a fresh 24-year high in midday European trade as the global bond selloff resumed Wednesday after a day of relief. French bonds continued to underperform due to continuing budget concerns. U.S. Treasury yields rose in Asian hours and continued to do so as Europe opened, with investors awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, when it raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The minutes are due at 1800 GMT. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.706%, a level unseen since 2002, according to Tradeweb.
"Persistent U.S. inflation, resilient activity, and fiscal headwinds have led markets to price a higher path for policy rates," State Street Investment Management said in a note. "While rising prices, higher borrowing costs, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create challenges, economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient," it said.
"Together, sticky inflation and resilient economic growth point to the potential for further upward pressure on rates." Market expectations for another Fed rate hike in October have fluctuated since then. Markets currently assign a 22% probability to a rate increase this month, down sharply from around 70% at the beginning of last week, although several rate increases are still expected over the coming year, according to LSEG data. Geopolitics also remain a focus for global bond markets after Iran intensified attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, driving oil prices higher. Brent crude oil was up 1.3% at $101.9 a barrel.
"Clearly, the overhang of the geopolitical landscape and the subsequent, associated, elevated nature of price pressures and the push higher in government bond yields, are continuing to weigh on sentiment and generic risk appetite," said Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank in a note. France’s budget talks, and accompanying nationwide protests in the country stir nerves in Europe, leaving French government bonds, or OATs, yet again underperformers in the eurozone. The 10-year French OAT yield rose almost 14 basis points to 4.889%, while the 10-year German Bund yield was up 3.3 basis points to 3.507%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased 5.3 basis points to 5.323%, according to Tradeweb.
"France is quickly becoming the focus of the European bond selloff," Mitch Reznick, head of cross-border credit at Federated Hermes Limited said in a note. The 10-year OAT-Bund yield spread was last at 139 basis points, staying below Friday’s peak just shy of 159 basis points, according to Tradeweb.
"The velocity of the move matters," Reznick said. Investors are abandoning French government bonds for quality in German Bunds, which is magnifying the spread of the two wider. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the government is prepared to exercise special constitutional powers and circumvent parliament to pass billions in spending cuts if negotiations stall over the 2027 budget. He also said he was willing to negotiate on all aspects of the budget, but he has two red lines—sticking to a maximum budget deficit of 5% of gross domestic product and avoiding any changes that hurt growth. Opposition far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s proposal for a "golden rule" debt brake and 140 billion euros ($157.65 billion) in savings by 2032 "directionally targets fiscal discipline, yet implementation faces steep constitutional hurdles," said Patrick Munnelly, market strategist at Tickmill Group, in a note. Meanwhile, Danske Bank analysts see a risk of further pressure on long-dated Treasurys.
"The pressure is on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve given not only supply of Treasurys but also from the hyperscalers," said Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske, in a note. "We do ...
Source: Wall Street Journal Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing