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PCE Inflation Stays Elevated in July

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The stubborn U.S. inflation problem did not get much worse in July. It did not get any better, either. Consumer prices were up 3.7 percent in July from a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index. That was the same rate as in June, and still well above the Fed’s target of 2 percent annual inflation. Core prices, a measure that strips out the volatile food and energy categories, were up 3.3 percent from a year earlier, also unchanged from June.

On a monthly basis, overall prices were up 0.2 percent in July, reversing a slight decline in June. Core prices also rose 0.2 percent. The data, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday, highlighted the tricky position Fed policymakers face as they weigh whether to raise interest rates at their meeting next month. Inflation jumped this spring after President Trump led the United States into war with Iran, which pushed up energy prices around the world.

It has eased somewhat since then, and there have been few signs that higher oil prices are filtering through to the economy more broadly, apart from some isolated categories such as airfares. That has led some policymakers to conclude they can afford to wait to raise rates. Other officials argue that the inflation problem is not isolated to energy prices. The boom in artificial intelligence is driving up prices for computer chips, while a renewed trade war with Canada threatens higher costs for imported goods.

The data also showed both the resilience of the economy and the toll that higher prices are taking. Personal income, after taxes, rose faster than prices last month. But consumer spending did not, suggesting households are cutting back in some areas. “Consumers are not really in strong enough shape to continue spending on the higher prices at the pump and then also keep spending on all the other categories,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.