Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 12, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Macro & Central Banks

A subdued US inflation report relieved near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates, sending stocks higher and Treasury yields initially lower before a partial recovery. The July Consumer Price Index data helped reinforce the patient approach adopted by many Fed officials about raising rates, but it has not resolved the debate altogether according to the latest CPI report. Though energy prices fell, other factors pushed up costs in July as the war drags on, with inflation easing only slightly while prices remain elevated. A separate report showed the share of overdue consumer loans fell slightly in the second quarter, with US household delinquencies improving according to the New York Fed. Meanwhile, homeowners tight on cash are tapping into their homes’ equity, and the labor market slowed as employers grew wary of hiring.

Equities

US stocks were mixed as deadlock in the Middle East offset relatively benign inflation data and an AI earnings bonanza. The S&P 500 closed near all-time highs, led by the technology sector, after the subdued inflation reading eased rate-hike concerns. However, stocks continued to fall into Tuesday’s close after Pakistan said a US and Iran deal to address the Strait of Hormuz was close, while negotiations remain at an impasse. Asian stocks were poised for gains Thursday after the benign US inflation data. Ed Yardeni raised his view for the S&P 500 Index to 8,400, topping his own Street-high target after “fabulous earnings momentum.” The latest reason to worry about the stock market is quite the doozy: S&P 500 earnings growth has been too strong, investors fret. A growing share of equity leverage is riding on the same AI names, many of which have seen historic swings, as AI stock risks spread to the broader equity market. European markets mostly fell as continued tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment.

Corporate Earnings & Deals

Treasury Wine Estates full-year earnings fell by 36% as the company battled a global downturn in alcohol consumption. CapitaLand Investment profit rose in the first half, driven by higher contributions from private funds. ASX Ltd. full-year profit missed estimates and costs grew ahead of incoming CEO Anthony Attia’s arrival. Origin Energy full-year profit beat estimates as the uptake of electric vehicles and home batteries in Australia accelerated. ANZ Group Holdings profit climbed in the third quarter as the bank grew customer deposits and lending. Cisco reported a sharp jump in profit as AI orders rolled in. Foxconn reported another strong quarter as it boosted production of AI servers. Cava Group said climbing customer traffic boosted its profit in the second quarter. Performance Food logged higher sales and profit in the fiscal fourth quarter. Cardinal Health had a mixed fiscal fourth quarter but expects revenue to rise in both segments. ABN Amro reported quarterly profit that beat estimates, prompting the Dutch bank to raise its revenue outlook. Brinker International guided for another year of profitable growth as its Chili’s chain attracts value-seeking diners. Hims & Hers Health boosted its revenue target despite swinging to a second-quarter loss.

Fixed Income & Foreign Exchange

A $42 billion auction of 10-year US Treasuries resulted in the highest yield for the benchmark securities since 2007. A shift in the buyer base of US Treasuries toward value-oriented investors has helped propel 30-year yields to multi-decade peaks, according to Barclays. The yen edged closer to the key level of 160 per dollar, keeping investors on lookout for more intervention. The yen’s intervention effects are already wearing off, while a senior strategist at Bank of New York Mellon is using the price of a Japanese fast-food staple to get an accurate snapshot of the yen’s weakness. Currency traders are stepping up bullish options bets on the Taiwan dollar, signaling a shift in sentiment. The WSJ Dollar Index ended Tuesday’s session flat. The dollar strengthened, reversing its morning losses and continued to strengthen against the yen. However, MUFG Bank said the dollar was at risk of falling due to a lack of confidence in how the Fed will respond to the energy-price shock from the Middle East conflict. An early rally in emerging-market currencies fizzled after the dollar reversed losses triggered by tame US inflation data. Election worries are starting to seep into Brazilian markets, prompting some investors to pare exposure to one of this year’s most rewarding carry trades. India’s inflation was broadly steady in July, holding within the RBI’s target range and cementing expectations of a rate pause.

Commodities & Energy

Gold settled 0.6% higher for a fourth-consecutive session, while silver rose 1.2% on tame July inflation. Gold extended gains as the subdue inflation calmed rate hike fears. Gold and silver futures settled higher for the second straight session, with gold adding 0.5% and silver gaining 2.8%. Oil futures ended little changed in cautious trading with the market focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Oil swung between gains and losses as traders parsed a barrage of data from leading energy forecasters amid little sign of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of a deal to restore energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices. US crude oil stockpiles posted an unexpected build, with commercial stocks rising by 17.4 million barrels. Russia’s crude-only production lagged behind its OPEC+ quota by almost a million barrels a day in July. Saudi Arabia reported it increased crude oil production by just over 1 million barrels a day in July. OPEC again cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth as talks over the Strait of Hormuz stall. Freight costs for oil tankers shipping crude from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean have risen to a record after a flurry of drone attacks. US natural gas futures rose on hotter weather forecasts for much of the next two weeks. The owners of Australia’s biggest aluminum smelter, including Rio Tinto, secured a government bailout of A$2.5 billion. Aluminum extended gains to a seven-week high after a key alumina producer slashed production. Colombia partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port after the earthquake. The USDA made a surprise cut to corn yield projections for the 2026/27 season.

Derivatives, Debt Markets & Structured Products

Jane Street has issued $14.6 billion of bonds, part of a broader overhaul of its debt load to fund technology infrastructure. Lambda Inc. wrapped up a $926 million leveraged-loan deal to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure. Subsidiaries of Quality Tech LP are holding investor calls ahead of a potential bond offering that may raise about $2.85 billion for data-center financing. Cloudflare Inc. announced plans for a private offering of $2.175 billion of senior convertible notes. Duke Energy Corp. plans to raise about $1.75 billion by selling equity units. IBM sold C$2.75 billion of Canadian corporate bonds, building on a record year of issuance. Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. spent another week selling Bitcoin and common shares to bolster its cash reserve. Exchange operator MEMX is looking to offer binary bets on corporate earnings metrics. Bonds issued by Air Baltic Corp slumped further into deeply distressed levels after the airline announced a debt-for-equity swap. The SEC rejected credit rating firm Egan-Jones Ratings Co. application to re-enter the market for grading government debt. The SEC also accused investment adviser Adit Ventures of making false claims about investments. Indian retail traders lost 916.85 billion rupees trading equity futures and options in the year ended March.