Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 11, 2026, 11:36 AM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Equities

US stocks hover near records, but anxiety over geopolitics and inflation keeps animal spirits subdued — a setup some see as a buying opportunity. Futures edged higher Tuesday as oil gave back earlier gains. Major indexes pulled back from all-time highs as oil climbed toward $90. The Vix fear gauge tumbled to prewar levels, prompting warnings of complacency. Demand for portfolio protection hit its lowest since Trump’s tariff capitulation last year.

European equities charged ahead, defying stagflation forecasts, with the Stoxx 600 up 12% this year. Robust earnings and economic growth have made Europe a winning bet for money managers. Energy stocks boosted indexes as crude rallied.

Emerging markets present a mixed picture. Valuations have fallen to less than half the S&P 500 for the first time in two decades. In Turkey, funds urge authorities to crack down on volatile trading threatening MSCI inclusion. India’s retail derivatives traders lost $9.6 billion in the year to March. Equity fund flows moderated in July, but small- and mid-cap strategies remained popular. Korea’s small caps surged 30% as leveraged ETFs rotated away from chipmakers. BSE’s inclusion in the Nifty 50 could drive $741 million in passive inflows, while Wipro’s exit underscores the shift from outsourcing to growth. Hong Kong’s tech index is being revamped to include more AI and robotics companies. China’s AI stocks are being pushed by the government as it races the US for chip dominance.

Fixed Income

Treasury yields rose as Middle East tensions and inflation fears grew. Eurozone yields also edged up on Hormuz uncertainty. US investment-grade bond issuance surged with 19 firms coming to market, the most in seven months. ICE launched a bond sale to fund its $6 billion Market Axess acquisition. Gainwell Technologies started a $5.8 billion junk-debt overhaul, the software sector’s largest. Private-credit lenders are restricting loan sweeteners amid fears of “shadow defaults.” In munis, Atlanta Airport issued $1.1 billion, and a Los Angeles school borrowed $117 million in the largest private school bond deal in two years. TIPS offer a rare buying opportunity with real yields above 3%.

Commodities

Oil climbed above $90 as doubts hardened over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude extended its rebound after President Trump made sweeping new demands on Iran. Russia’s crude exports tumbled to their lowest since May as refineries ramped up runs. A dozen ships continued shuttle transits outside Hormuz. Iran’s oil terminals appeared idle under the US blockade. China’s independent refiners may boost Iranian crude buying as stockpiles shrink. Saudi Aramco delayed restart of its Jazan refinery after a weekend attack. The real squeeze is in refineries, where the Iran war, Ukrainian strikes, and China’s export restrictions have tightened product markets.

US natural gas held gains on a hotter weather outlook, then surged on short-covering after forecasts swung significantly. Gold neared $4,400 an ounce as traders weighed the Hormuz standoff and upcoming inflation data. Gold also targets $4,500 on technical momentum. Precious metals pushed higher, with gold up 0.5% and silver up 2.8%. Aluminum hit a seven-week high after a Brazilian plant cut output. Copper shipments from Indonesia were delayed by a smelter outage at Grasberg. Wheat rose ahead of the USDA supply report expected to show tightening global grain supplies. An Australian wheat crop recovery offers some relief.

Currencies

The yen weakened toward 160 per dollar, raising the prospect of Japanese intervention. Analysts question whether intervention will be needed again soon. The Singapore dollar held steady on stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP. Emerging-market currencies weakened as hopes for a Hormuz deal faded. The dollar rose but is at risk due to Fed uncertainty. The yuan may resume its march against the dollar next month. Taiwan dollar options show traders betting on a rebound. Deutsche Bank became the first European renminbi clearing bank, as China seeks to boost the currency’s international use. The renminbi’s hardest mile is just beginning.

Deals & Corporate Finance

Hollywood mogul Ari Emanuel agreed to buy ATG Entertainment for $6 billion, a big bet on live events. The deal includes 7 Broadway and 10 West End theaters. Nvidia is working with Wall Street to assemble a $500 billion funding package for AI infrastructure. Six investment firms announced a similar $500 billion effort to finance Nvidia customers. BlackRock and others are committing eye-popping sums to AI lending, raising concerns about overenthusiasm. DayOne Data Centers confidentially filed for a $5 billion US IPO.

TPG agreed to buy a 61.2% stake in Lotte Rental for $925 million. Hanwha offered to buy Austal USA, a builder of US Navy ships, for about $1 billion. Hanwha Aerospace separately bid $1.2 billion for Austal’s US unit. Teledyne Technologies will buy Varex Imaging for $1.1 billion. Samsung SDI acquired GM’s stake in their US battery joint venture. Larsen & Toubro plans to manufacture rare-earth magnets in India. Adani Group secured an $800 million loan for data centers, and Gautam Adani won dismissal of US fraud charges. CSN got relief after a $1 billion debt exchange was approved. 777 Partners filed for bankruptcy. Strategy Inc. sold more Bitcoin to boost its cash stockpile. Cambridge Aerospace raised $300 million at a $3.4 billion valuation for missile and drone interceptors. Nick Blair, Tony Blair’s son, is seeking $200 million for a defence tech startup.

Shein is pitching its IPO at a valuation below $30 billion, a roughly 70% drop from its peak. Bloomberg Intelligence pegs the fast-fashion retailer at $22–25 billion. Unitree, a Chinese robot maker, saw its IPO 5,500 times oversubscribed, raising $900 million. A Bezos-led consortium is nearing a deal for a stake in Liverpool FC that could value the club at over $6 billion. Morgan Stanley launched a $1.5 trillion infrastructure initiative. The AstraZeneca–Bristol Myers $400 billion merger fell apart. Barrick and Newmont ended their dispute, clearing the way for a gold IPO. A Glencore-backed group is trying to rescue cobalt refiner Sherritt. Codelco won a reprieve to reinvest profits. A Tesla-SpaceX merger could wipe out performance targets for Musk’s payday. UWM lost $600 million and needed an Oaktree rescue.

Sector Developments

Energy: Adnoc Gas is exploring a new LNG export facility outside the Strait of Hormuz and plans to invest over $8 billion after leaving OPEC. Adnoc L&S posted a record quarterly profit. Phillips 66 announced a $5 billion pipeline from Texas to Phoenix and Los Angeles. Trump’s anti-wind push is redirecting funds to boost natural gas. European defense stocks are expected to rally again on rearmament spending.

Tech: CoreWeave earnings after the close Tuesday will test the neocloud provider’s recent rally. Intel investors are betting on a $15 billion turnaround. Tencent’s WorkBuddy is showing early success in AI. OpenAI’s ethics head departed amid safety concerns. Senator Sanders called for an AI development pause to “avoid disaster.” The AI threat to India’s IT jobs machine is growing.

Consumer & Healthcare: Chobani cut its annual earnings forecast on rising material costs. Smithfield Foods lowered its outlook as sales fell. A chicken surplus is squeezing poultry companies. On Holding tempered its sales outlook after a Q2 shortfall. Domino’s will launch an individual-size pizza aimed at solo diners. Tractor Supply is cutting prices and slowing expansion. Diageo is reviving Crown Royal, Smirnoff, and Captain Morgan. Hims & Hers boosted its revenue target to $3.1–3.3 billion. Cardinal Health reported mixed sales but sees growth. Rocket Lab narrowed its loss as revenue surged. AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed 2026 revenue of $150–200 million. Trump Media lost $238.1 million in Q2. Treasury Wine shares jumped after a $395 million writedown. FanDuel and DraftKings are pivoting to prediction markets. Americans are tapping record home equity to pay credit card debt.

Auto & Industrials: GM President Mark Reuss discussed EVs, China, and his family legacy. China’s auto sales fell in July on weak demand. China tightens its grip on Europe’s car supply chain. Humanoid robots are coming to car factories, but efficiency gains are uncertain.

Other: BlocPower, a green building retrofit darling, is at risk of collapse. JBS returned leadership to the Batista clan as the heir became CEO. John Lewis boss Peter Ruis stepped down. Kenya plans to import corn after a crop failure.

Macro & Policy

US small business confidence rose to 99.8 in July, the highest since August 2025. Colombia’s inflation unexpectedly slowed, easing pressure on the central bank. India’s FX reserves climbed toward a record on foreign inflows. EU border checks have doubled waiting times at airports. Germany lifted its Sunday lorry ban as drought hits Rhine shipping. The EU carbon tax will hit budget airlines. Hungary’s central bank supports euro area entry. South Africa vowed Eskom won’t weaken after transmission restructuring. Indonesia nominated Destry Damayanti as central bank chief to calm markets.

Regulation & Business

RFK Jr.’s additive transparency rule has limitations that let food companies dodge a crackdown. Shareholder proposal filings have dropped sharply. Buc-ee’s aggressive trademark enforcement is sparking backlash. Flock cameras are facing civil liberties outrage. The SEC alleged a fund adviser misled investors in pre-IPO schemes. Italy fined A2A €5 million for power market manipulation. The US regulator rejected Dutch fintech Bunq’s banking license application. Chicago hired a Fitch director as its next CFO. Goldman staff are named as suspects in a Brazil investigation.

Geopolitical Risk Monitor

Trumps demanding compensation from Iran before any Hormuz deal, while Iran named a hardline IRGC commander to a top security post. Israel rejected Trump’s 15-point plan to disarm Hamas. A Ukrainian drone attack killed 13 deep inside Russia. A major earthquake struck Colombia, killing at least. Extreme weather triggered flood warnings across the US Midwest.