Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 8, 2026, 2:32 PM ET

Macro Overview

U.S. stocks ended the week at record levels after a surprisingly weak July jobs report eased fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best week since April, with all three major indexes rising Friday. The July payrolls data showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs, far below expectations, which prompted traders to scale back bets on a September rate increase. The dollar fell to a seven-week low against a basket of currencies as the probability of tighter monetary policy receded. Despite the weak headline number, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder argued the contraction reflects a "productivity revolution" from AI rather than economic weakness, projecting the U.S. remains on track for 6% GDP growth. However, officials at the Fed remain chiefly focused on inflation after five years of overshooting the 2 percent target, suggesting a rate rise is not entirely off the table.

The bond market is signaling rising risks even as the Fed holds steady, with higher yields creating hardship for home buyers and higher hurdles for AI data centers and the stock market, though the move is a boon for retirees. The U.S. Treasury's decision to sell euros to support the yen without warning European policymakers is adding to geopolitical risks and dimming the appeal of longer-maturity government bonds, according to BlackRock. Global bond and currency investors are debating whether to dust off last year's 'Sell America' trade after a flurry of economic-policy decisions out of Washington. The US Treasury sparked debate by signaling potential cutbacks in note and bond auctions, an article of faith for the world's biggest bond market.

Equities

The labor market shifting into reverse drove a broad market rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially falling 460 points before rebounding. U.S. stocks rose after the July jobs report came in much cooler than expected. Big Tech stocks stormed back as AI fears faded and euphoria resumed, reversing a trend that had seen the world’s biggest technology companies in the stock market doghouse over profligate AI spending.

SpaceX shares jumped for a second straight day, climbing back above the $135 initial public offering price for the first time since falling below that key level last month. SpaceX shares rallied to near their IPO price after staging a $327 billion rally, with retail investors seeing an "insane opportunity" to buy. European indexes rose as corporate earnings drove markets, with the Stoxx 600 up led by consumer-facing stocks and healthcare. Gold jumped more than 3% after the weak US jobs data, extending a rebound from its slump below $4,000 an ounce.

Fixed Income & Currencies

Treasury yields fell after the weaker-than-expected jobs report, which showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. Earlier in the week, yields had risen amid low job cuts and low claims, ahead of the payrolls data. Bond traders were bracing for the labor market data that could tip the scale on a Fed hike. At the Fed, Kevin Warsh faces the challenge of taming inflation, a task complicated by the nation’s ongoing fiscal deficits.

Hedge funds sharply reduced bearish bets on the yen after coordinated efforts by US and Japanese officials helped stabilize the currency. The US intervention, which involved selling euros for yen, surprised European policymakers. Currency interventions have a mixed record, as you cannot fight macro with FX interventions. The dollar hit a seven-week low after the weak data. The Colombian peso continues to defy the central bank's efforts to halt its carry-fueled rally, remaining the best performing emerging-market currency.

Commodities & Energy

Oil futures rose Friday on Middle East supply disruption concerns, with WTI settling up 1.2% at $78.18 a barrel, though the front-month contract posted a 7.7% weekly loss. Iran’s oil exports have stalled as the Kharg Island terminal idles under the US blockade, with naval interdiction halting tankers from carrying Tehran’s crude. Tehran says the US must "rectify its behaviour" before the Strait of Hormuz reopens, demanding compensation for war damage, dampening hopes of an end to the blockade. The Houthis claimed an attack on a Yemeni military camp that killed, prompting fears the 2022 truce is collapsing as Yemen teeters on the brink of civil war.

A diesel squeeze spurred by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine is setting the stage for an even worse crunch as demand rises ahead of winter. U.S. natural gas futures posted their seventh consecutive weekly loss due to strong production and soft LNG feedgas demand. Copper is heading for new highs as a two-way pull depletes LME inventories, raising the risk of another spike. Gold jumped after the weak US jobs data.

Sector & Corporate

Private credit is being squeezed as highly-indebted companies ditch loans for cheaper capital in the bank loan market, a shift underscoring higher-for-longer interest rates. Gainwell Technologies kicked off a $5.8 billion debt overhaul, the US software sector's biggest of 2026. Meanwhile, Blue Owl Capital sought to shore up confidence in its private credit funds, stressing that borrower fundamentals remained strong.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Greg Abel ended a more than three-year selling streak by ploughing a net $20bn into stocks, finally putting the conglomerate's cash pile to work. Dream Finders Homes agreed to a roughly $916 million deal to buy rival Beazer Homes. Kirin Holdings shares rose 2.4% after announcing a $1.4 billion deal to acquire Toronto-based Jamieson Wellness. Lumilens, which makes optical gear for AI servers, raised $700 million at a $5.5 billion valuation. Situational Awareness bet $400 million on chip startup Source Foundry after the AI-battered hedge fund crashed. Atlassian CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes vowed to spend $250 million buying shares as the stock soared on strong quarterly sales.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins blasted prediction market bets placed on earnings call comments, as the company reported sales and profit that missed estimates due to the prediction-market challenge. Wendy’s withdrew its outlook and slashed its quarterly dividend as its turnaround struggled. Under Armour lowered its revenue outlook on soft demand, stepping up promotional efforts. Goodyear swung to a loss of $204 million on lower tire volume and higher costs. Etsy cut 12% of its workforce as the CEO focuses on the core marketplace.