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U.S. Stocks Rise, Rate-Hike Odds Fall on Weak Jobs Report

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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U.S. stocks rose Friday and Treasury yields fell after July payroll data came in far weaker than expected, giving the Federal Reserve reason to hold off on raising interest rates next month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 151.83 points, or 0.28%, to 54036.93. The S&P 500 gained 47.68 points, or 0.62%, to 7757.64, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 342.26 points, or 1.30%, to 26690.62.

The economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a sharp miss against economist expectations of 83,000 gains, while revisions to May and June payrolls showed that 103,000 fewer jobs were created in that stretch than first estimated. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, though analysts noted the drop reflected fewer Americans looking for work rather than genuine labor market strength. Wage growth also came in below expectations.

Traders quickly scaled back their bets on a September rate hike to about 44%, from 55% before the report, according to CME Group data. The more consequential test for the Fed, analysts said, will be next week’s July consumer price index. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh held rates steady last week, though three of 12 officials voted for an increase.

The week’s rally was fueled by optimism about a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, a strong run of earnings and a broad recovery in chip stocks. Airbnb gained 17% after raising its full-year revenue forecast, citing growing demand and AI improvements. Atlassian surged 35% after its cloud business accelerated beyond expectations. Trade Desk fell 22% after reporting lower-than-expected revenue.