Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: August 8, 2026, 5:31 PM ET

Public Markets

Equities

The S&P 500 rose to a record after July payroll data came in far weaker than expected, capping the benchmark's best week since April. The Nasdaq also rallied as traders scaled back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a surprise contraction that prompted a sharp reversal in rate-hike bets. All three major indexes gained on the data, which showed manufacturing employment remaining a bright spot even as broader hiring stalled. BlackRock's Rick Rieder argued the payrolls contraction reflects a "productivity revolution" rather than economic weakness, saying the economy remains on track for strong nominal GDP growth.

Big Tech stocks stormed back as fears over profligate AI spending faded, with the world's largest technology companies suddenly leading the market higher. Wall Street bulls flocked to S&P 500 calls as the rally broadened beyond the Nasdaq. The risk complex surged anew amid a deluge of fresh cash, with markets showing increasing indifference to a growing list of geopolitical and economic complaints. Take-Two Interactive logged higher fiscal first-quarter sales but saw losses widen due to discontinued development of a title. WPP shares surged more than 25% after an overhaul began to bear fruit, with revenue less pass-through costs falling less sharply. Airbnb boosted its full-year forecast, now expecting revenue growth in at least the mid-teens. Under Armour lowered its revenue outlook as traffic trends weakened, particularly in North America and Asia-Pacific. Monster Beverage sales rose 20% in the second quarter, driven by international growth.

Fixed Income & Currency

Treasury yields fell sharply after the weaker-than-expected jobs report. The bond market is signaling rising risks, with higher yields creating hardship for home buyers and raising hurdles for AI data centers and the stock market. The US Treasury sparked debate over auction cutbacks as a tool to temper yields, challenging a long-held article of faith about the world's biggest bond market. Bond traders were bracing for the labor market data, which cooled expectations for a September rate hike. Wellington Asset Management reduced its exposure to US Treasuries, shifting into German bonds after last week's Fed meeting fueled doubts about inflation-fighting credibility.

The dollar fell to its lowest since May as rate-hike bets faded, ending the week at a seven-week low against a basket of currencies. The yen surged against the weaker dollar after the soft payrolls report. Hedge funds sharply reduced bearish bets on the yen after coordinated US and Japanese efforts helped stabilize the currency. The US intervention in yen markets highlights America's financial weak spot. Currency interventions have a mixed record, as macro forces typically overwhelm FX operations. Dollar hedging costs jumped as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh ditched rate guidance, leaving Wall Street guessing. The Colombian peso defied central bank efforts to halt its carry-fueled rally, remaining the best performing emerging market currency. India's foreign exchange reserves are expected to swell to a near-record high.

Commodities & Energy

Oil futures settled higher Friday but finished down on the week, with WTI settling up 1.2% at $78.18 a barrel, down 7.7% for the week, while Brent rose 1.3% to $83.55 for a 5% weekly loss. Iran's oil exports have stalled as naval interdiction appears to halt tankers carrying Tehran's crude. A diesel squeeze spurred by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine is setting the stage for an even worse crunch ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. A refining crunch keeps fuel prices high even as crude retreats, with lost capacity in Russia and the Gulf benefiting US refiners. "Refine, Baby, Refine" is the energy industry's new mantra as America's fuel-makers max out to fill global supply gaps.

U.S. natural gas futures posted their seventh consecutive weekly loss as strong production and soft LNG feedgas offset high seasonal power-sector demand. Lumber prices surged despite the housing slump. Rising cocoa prices are pushing processors beyond the candy aisle. Trump administration tariffs on polysilicon, a key ingredient for electronics and solar panels, will impose a minimum import price. The administration also agreed to roughly $4 billion in settlements to cancel planned offshore wind projects. Trump's tariffs on China created a "tortuous experience" for soybean trade, a Chinese diplomat said. Mexico deployed hundreds of troops to secure avocado heartlands after violence prompted the US to suspend imports.

Central Banks & Policy

The July jobs report poses a new test for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as investors increasingly expect the central bank to begin raising interest rates as soon as next month. Officials remain focused on the trajectory of inflation after five years of overshooting the 2% target, and the weak jobs report does not eliminate prospects of an interest rate rise. Warsh's success may rest on an issue outside traditional monetary policy: the nation's ongoing fiscal deficits. The Trump administration restarted a battle to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sending her a letter saying it was "considering" removing her. Christopher Phelan, a former Fed adviser, was confirmed as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. The labor market has shifted into reverse as employers balk at hiring, with a spring surge rapidly fading into summer uncertainty.

Deals, Credit & Private Markets

Greg Abel finally put Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile to work, ending a more than three-year selling streak by ploughing a net $20 billion into stocks. Private credit is being squeezed as highly-indebted companies ditch private loans for cheaper bank capital amid higher-for-longer interest rates. Dream Finders Homes agreed a roughly $916 million deal to buy Beazer Homes. Kirin Holdings pushed into vitamin sales with a $1.4 billion deal for Jamieson Wellness. Gainwell Technologies kicked off a $5.8 billion debt overhaul, the US software sector's biggest of 2026. Airtable's cut-price sale to Bending Spoons for just under $2.3 billion is just the start for software also-rans. SoftBank used its OpenAI stake to borrow $10 billion, vowing to become a leading builder of AI data centers. Situational Awareness, an AI-battered hedge fund, bet $400 million on stealth chip startup Source Foundry. Private-equity firms, eager for exits, are pouncing on the hot IPO market. Wintermute, a crypto trader, stepped onto regulated Wall Street with a broker license, aiming to take on Jane Street and Citadel. VideoAmp cut staff as AI agents take center stage. Wendy's withdrew its outlook and slashed its quarterly dividend as its turnaround struggles. First Brands urged a court to approve a bankruptcy settlement to fund lawsuits pursuing billions in claims. Mike Ashley said Harvey Nichols is in a "death spiral" even as he vies to acquire it. Kenvue reported higher profit and sales ahead of its acquisition by Kimberly-Clark. AIG profit beat estimates under new CEO Eric Andersen. Munich Re cut its revenue outlook after volumes and prices fell at July contract renewals. Allianz Trade plans to cut credit cover for UK housebuilder Vistry's suppliers, potentially exacerbating its cash flow squeeze. Diageo boss Dave Lewis staked a revival on canned cocktails and Guinness. Whatnot, a live-shopping platform, was valued at $20 billion in new funding. Wonder is taking a gamble on robots, drones and AI-generated menus to lower prices. Paramount agreed safeguards for UK approval of its $110 billion WBD deal.