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US Yen Intervention Exposes Financial Vulnerabilities

Financial Times Markets •
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The US Treasury's intervention in the Japanese yen market may appear as a simple act of alliance solidarity, but it reveals deeper economic contradictions within the United States.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent justified the yen purchases as a measure to prevent a broader Asian currency crisis, citing that many Asian currencies closely follow the yen. While this reasoning stretches credibility, it's true that major Asian economies including Japan, China, and South Korea account for roughly 18% of US trade and have experienced significant currency devaluation.

This creates a dual challenge for the US: weak Asian currencies make their exports artificially cheap while making US imports expensive. However, any attempt by Japan to strengthen its currency would likely involve either raising interest rates or selling US Treasury bonds—actions that could directly harm US economic interests.

The episode underscores America's fundamental vulnerability: its reliance on foreign capital to fund its massive fiscal deficit. With 10-year Treasury yields rising from around 4% to 4.6% and 30-year rates exceeding 5%, market risk has returned. Despite the dollar's reserve currency status and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's privileged position, investors are increasingly questioning US economic stability.

The intervention benefits Japan by slowing yen depreciation, but the real advantage lies with the US, which cleverly structured future interventions through a Fed facility limiting immediate Treasury sales.