Diesel and petrol are trading at premiums close to record levels over crude, with diesel at a $70‑a‑barrel premium—near last week’s $90 record and far above the typical $20 level, according to Argus.

The gap reflects a worldwide shortage of refining capacity. Tehran’s intermittent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, and Chinese export curbs have cut feedstock supplies. U.S. Gulf refiners have captured the upside: Exxon Mobil and Chevron posted a combined $26.5bn profit in Q2, and Exxon reported record diesel output.

High pump prices are a political headache for Donald Trump ahead of November’s midterms. The DOJ has opened a price‑gouging probe, and gasoline has risen above $4 a gallon (up ~35 % since February), while diesel averages $5.34 a gallon—now higher than the average during the Biden administration.

Analysts warn that global inventories are eroding and Europe remains vulnerable after years of under‑investment. With rotating crises across the products complex, refiners can only address one shortage at a time, leaving the market exposed to further spikes.