Last updated: August 21, 2026, 7:59 AM ET
Global Markets Wrap
Global stocks and bonds advanced earlier in the session as oil halted its streak of gains, offering brief respite from mounting worries about inflationary pressures. That calm did not hold on Wall Street, where disappointing retail earnings and sticky yields set a downbeat tone. US stocks fell on Thursday as oil prices and benchmark bond yields rose, while disappointing results from Walmart pressured the retail giant and its peers.
Wall Street Slumps
Stocks slumped as bond yields rose alongside crude prices, with Walmart sinking after its weak earnings report. U.S. stocks fell after weak earnings reports from Walmart and Alibaba, extending the gloom beyond the consumer sector. The S&P 500 headed for a weekly loss as bond markets shrugged off Treasury efforts to curb borrowing costs.
Walmart's Consumer Warning
Walmart added to Wall Street pressures with weak sales growth, while healthcare costs are set for a steep increase. The retailer posted its slowest sales growth in years as Americans tightened their wallets, and big US retailers have warned that consumers are turning cautious even with household balance sheets seemingly healthy . Walmart shares tumbled as sales growth slowed to a six-year low, and the company will deploy almost $2.9bn in tariff refunds to fund price cuts for squeezed shoppers. Notably, e-commerce, membership and advertising are driving growth at the massive retailer, even though stores are no longer the engine.
Retailers Mixed
Mixed results from Walmart and other retailers offered more gloom on the health of the American consumer, even as markets largely brushed off the Treasury's buyback plans.
Europe's Quiet Strength
European stocks are hiding bargains after the region's companies posted their best earnings season in years, with profits surging 18%, and investors are finally starting to notice. Europe deserves more respect for its cash generation, broader earnings and lower technology concentration. At the open, European indexes largely rose, with the Stoxx 600 lifted by the banking sector. Goldman and JPMorgan are among the most bullish houses on the region.
European Earnings Winners
Novonesis led the Stoxx 600 after posting organic sales growth ahead of consensus estimates and raising guidance. Biotech also shone, as Argenx soared on Vyvgart trial success, capping a big week for the sector on both sides of the Atlantic. Moderna nearly tripled in value as its mRNA cancer treatment showed promise, reviving memories of pandemic-era mania.
The Treasury's Intervention
Treasury yields held close to flat after earlier retracing sharp falls that initially followed the Treasury's surprise bond-market intervention. Market relief at the unexpected move proved short-lived, as analysts said concerns remain about high levels of debt and government spending . Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reinventing the government's role in the world's most important bond market with interventionist tactics. Yet as one analysis put it, the US Treasury is buying long bonds — but not very many.
Bond Vigilantes Unmoved
Wall Street investors dismissed the plan to buy more long-term US debt as a "band-aid on a bullet hole" in the $32tn Treasury market, leaving the bond vigilantes unconvinced. Scott Bessent is battling those vigilantes directly, according to First FT, which also flags Healey's deficit warning and HSBC's job cuts. Market participants warned that a lack of predictability in debt management could ultimately portend higher borrowing costs.
The Fed's Complication
Bessent's intervention is another complication for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with whether to raise interest rates. The Treasury's plan has calmed markets, but Wall Street is worried about the fallout for inflation and more . An opinion column argues the bond "chaos" is a sign Kevin Warsh's plan is working, because the Fed is becoming less willing to subsidize spendthrift lawmakers. Money-market savant Darrell Duffie offered his views on balance-sheet reform and Warsh's task force. Fed minutes, meanwhile, revealed broader support for rate increases .
Quant Pain and Treasury Voices
Quant funds were rocked as the Treasury boosted buybacks, a tumultuous session that heaped further pressure on momentum trades already unsettled by the AI-related stock sell-off. Former Treasury official Nellie Liang said the ultimate goal is to signal that high rates are a concern.
What Would Really Lower Yields
Goldman Sachs argues that slowing inflation, not Treasury engineering, remains the most compelling way to lower US yields. Analysts said the recent rise in yields partly reflected investor expectations that the AI borrowing binge could keep interest rates elevated. The stakes are broad, because bond yields feed into everything from auto and student loans to mortgages.
The Dollar's Retreat
The dollar hovered near a three-month low after the Treasury intervention, with expectations that US rates could be left on hold also weighing. Citigroup turned bearish on the dollar in the near term, citing a less hawkish Fed, midterm elections and more debt buybacks. Still, BNY strategists noted the dollar remains the most reliable defensive currency during selloffs in equities and bonds, and the WSJ Dollar Index rose.
EM Currencies
Emerging-market currencies were mixed, as the Treasury buyback lift proved short-lived and was seen by many as a temporary measure that allowed the dollar to rebound. Ethiopia sold $500M to local banks, stepping up efforts to ease dollar shortages and stem the slide in its currency. Egypt held interest rates for a fourth straight meeting, choosing caution after inflation quickened and prospects dimmed for an imminent end to the Iran war.
Gold's Record Run
Gold rose above $4,600 a troy ounce and was headed for a weekly gain of 4%, buoyed by concerns over US government debt and borrowing costs. Gold prices are on track for a third straight weekly gain after the Treasury's unexpected ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated debt underscored concerns about its burden. Comex gold settled 0.6% higher at $4516.30, while silver rose 3.5%, with both metals up for a second consecutive session.
Oil's Geopolitical Premium
Oil prices slipped but remained on track for a weekly gain of around 5% after Trump vowed sweeping measures aimed at further isolating Iran's economy. Oil headed for a substantial weekly gain as the US push raised the specter of further market disruption. Oil futures rose for a fifth straight session as the US planned what the president called unprecedented economic isolation of Iran. Bond market stress returned and oil climbed in an edgy day for markets, as investors assessed the geopolitical turmoil.
Economic D-Day
Trump's threats of an economic D-Day carry a clear signal to Iran that he does not want a return to war. The president appeared to suggest the US would impose penalties on Iran's trading partners, though he did not specify what actions he would take. Trump also loomed over the wider risk agenda, with the FTC warning retailers on using consumer data to raise prices and the US eyeing lower tariffs on Canadian metals and autos. For now, Iran and the US have settled into an uneasy standoff, with no diplomatic progress but also no full-scale fighting.
Iran's Oil Lifeline Frays
Iranian oil readily available to Chinese buyers is rapidly running out, showing the effectiveness of the US blockade of the country's ports at choking off revenue to Tehran. Meanwhile, more vessels are navigating the Strait of Hormuz with their location devices switched off to evade attacks, adding to the threat of collisions and catastrophic spills.
Shipping Lanes Under Strain
Houthi attacks on a nearby Red Sea passageway assume even greater importance for the world economy given Iran's influence over Hormuz. Somali piracy is surging too, with two hijackings in four days stoking fears of a comeback. On trade infrastructure, the Panama Canal will cut daily transits as El Niño grips the region, only the second such reduction. CK Hutchison also launched arbitration in its dispute over Panama Canal ports.
Samsung's Record Payout
Samsung will return a record $80bn to shareholders, as the South Korean chipmaker has come under pressure to distribute more of its bumper profits from the AI boom. The plan includes a share buyback of as much as $78.88bn, the biggest ever, as chipmakers reap the rewards of artificial intelligence. Unprecedented shareholder-return plans by Korean chipmakers are also emerging as a key swing factor for the won, potentially extending its rally if the firms tap local currency markets.
Korea: Strikes and Listings
Hyundai's union launched its first full-day strike since 2016 after months of failed wage negotiations and a series of partial walkouts. Kakao Mobility, the TPG-backed ride-hailing firm, is considering a US listing of TPG's shares, seeking to tap global appetite for Korean companies highlighted by SK Hynix's blockbuster offering.
Italy's Banking Endgame
Monte dei Paschi made all-share bids worth $40bn for Banco BPM and Banca Generali as it fights off a takeover offer from Intesa Sanpaolo. The twin takeover bids would create a €70bn Italian bank, the latest twist in a protracted run of consolidation of Italian financial services groups. Monte Paschi is seeking to buy the two banks for a combined €34bn ($40bn) to prevent being bought by its rival.
US Retail Beyond Walmart
Ross Stores boosted its outlook, now forecasting earnings per share of $8.61 to $8.77 for the year as second-quarter profit and sales gained on higher traffic. The off-price retailer raised its annual profit outlook for a second time this year, signaling that its momentum is holding up . Target struck a notably upbeat tone on its earnings call, where seldom was heard a discouraging word. Deere posted higher fiscal third-quarter profit and sales, as continued growth in construction equipment offset ongoing weakness in production agriculture.
Consumer Corner
Starbucks is laying off more than 200 corporate workers in technology and coffeehouse development as part of a streamlining drive. GM ruled US auto sales for 100 years, but Toyota is closing in as the American automaker increases profits while selling fewer vehicles. Sony has pivoted from PlayStation hardware to become an entertainment powerhouse under President and CEO Hiroki Totoki. Super Micro cleared senior management in an alleged scheme by two employees and a contractor to smuggle Nvidia chips to China.
More Corporate Notes
SpaceX is racking up wins in Washington, landing lucrative contracts and benefiting from the Trump administration's deregulatory push. High-end automakers including Pagani, Bentley and Aston Martin are teaming with developers in Miami's condo market, solidifying the city's lead in car-branded residences. In Vietnam, PNJ was cleared of wrongdoing in its diamond import and distribution operations under preliminary findings of a wider gem-smuggling probe.
AI Trade Wobbles
Memory stocks are struggling to regain momentum after ripping through the first half of the year, as growing concerns about the AI trade overshadow strong fundamentals. Meta Platforms faces a trillion-dollar risk to its struggling stock from a trial accusing its social media platforms of targeting children. WuXi AppTec has become a top short target as a growing group of skeptics questions the Chinese biotech firm after an 80% rally.
Financing the AI Buildout
Broadcom is in talks with a group of lenders to raise more than $60bn in debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic and other companies. Nvidia looks well placed for the boom's next stage, using its balance sheet to seed new markets and a new business model. KKR's data center chief vaulted to prominence alongside Wall Street CEOs touting their $500bn pact to finance AI chips. Anthropic is set to add Citigroup to the banks working on its initial public offering as Wall Street jostles for roles on the mega-listing.
AI's Backlash Problem
Jasmine Sun explains how the hyperscalers got blindsided by the anti-data-center movement. On Odd Lots, even the builders of AI have long been anxious about its potential to create destabilizing job losses. One column argues the industry should drop the label altogether and call it Synthetic Intelligence.
AI Money Flows
California has drawn a record $366bn in venture-capital funding amid the AI boom, more than the other 49 states combined. Chinese robotics startup Dexmal is seeking a valuation of around 20bn yuan ($3bn) in an ongoing funding round. DayOne is seeking a HK$1.86bn ($237M) loan for a Hong Kong data center ahead of a planned US IPO. The Texas Stock Exchange is preparing to welcome PWRX, an ETF focused on AI and power demand, as new fund launches make listings an increasingly important prize for exchanges. Stripe is betting an AI world still needs middlemen, with its $8bn purchase of Open Router making strategic sense.
Evergrande's Final Chapter
China sentenced Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan to life in prison, capping the downfall of a property empire whose collapse set off a prolonged crisis in the Chinese economy. China Evergrande Group creditors owed $45bn face a more complex path to recovering even pennies on the dollar after the sentencing.
China's Market Leadership Shift
Shanghai's answer to Nasdaq is outstripping Hong Kong, with the Star 50 index up almost a quarter this year amid the Chinese tech frenzy. China's materials stocks have surged to the top of the market over the past month, as rallies in gold and copper transformed one of the year's lagging sectors into a leader. Hang Seng Index compilers may add chipmaker Hua Hong, AI-related Kingboard Laminates and miner Zijin Gold to the benchmark.
Pop Mart's Hangover
Pop Mart could miss its revenue goal as sales momentum fades following the Labubu surge, marking an acute downturn after a run of explosive growth. Shares in the Labubu toymaker fell the most in nearly five months after it warned that its 2026 sales-growth target is out of reach.
Asia's Broader Rally
Emerging-market stocks are seeing their tech rally spread beyond chipmaking heavyweights into smaller Asian names poised to power data centers. The China Shock 2.0 debate asks what the US should do as China wins the industries of the future. Asia's insurers are shielded against China's policy shifts for as long as the region's wealth accumulation keeps outpacing most developed economies.
India: Hawkish Surprise
Indian bonds sold off after surprisingly hawkish RBI minutes, and yields could drift higher as inflows from the foreign-currency deposit scheme begin to fade. India may grow closer to 7% in the financial year through March, beating the central bank's 6.7% forecast, according to Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta. India's economic activity edged up in August from a four-year low as a services pickup offset a sharp manufacturing slowdown, per HSBC's flash survey.
India's Regulatory Edge
India's securities regulator banned a JPMorgan unit in record time, a move market watchers say could deter attempts to manipulate the country's new closing auction. Goldman is muscling into Indian banks' turf with government share sales, a corner of the deal landscape long dominated by local finance giants. Proprietary trading firms earned less from Indian equity derivatives as regulatory curbs aimed at cooling the options boom took hold.
India Commodities and Credit
Duty-free raw sugar imports have been permitted by India, the world's second-biggest sugar producer, in an effort to tame record local prices. India's private credit market is shifting homegrown, as local firms armed with larger capital pools wrest deals from global funds. Nigeria remains attractive to T. Rowe Price even after a 64% rally that made it the world's best performer after South Korea.
Japan's Inflation Test
The Bank of Japan faces pressure to act on rates in September after Japanese inflation rose to 1.9% and the yen weakened despite joint intervention. Lintec shares slid to a three-month low after the Japanese company's largest shareholder announced plans to dispose of its stake.
UK: Deficit Dilemma
The UK posted an unexpected budget deficit of £1.8bn in July, underscoring the challenge facing Chancellor John Healey ahead of his first Budget. Healey has been warned to limit Budget borrowing amid the bond sell-off, with allies saying he plans to stay "well within" Labour's fiscal rules. UK stock futures were steady and the pound climbed on the rate outlook, keeping the FTSE 100 in focus.
UK Business Notes
British food firms urged new Prime Minister Andy Burnham to act on rising costs as European droughts push up the price of key ingredients. HSBC spent $68mn on its biggest cull of senior bankers since the financial crisis, cutting 134 highly paid staff as Europe's largest lenders shed the most since 2020. London cabbies are plotting "skulduggery" to take on robotaxis as private-hire drivers brace for a new wave of technological change.
Australia: Hedging and Housing Pain
Positions on three-year bond futures have risen toward an all-time high as the nation's growing debt pile fuels hedging demand. Kangaroo bonds are drawing increased interest from overseas borrowers, including Alphabet, which issued debt in Australia for the first time in August to help fund AI spending. National Australia Bank is cutting jobs in its corporate and institutional division as it reorganizes some roles. Inghams shares dropped 11%, the most in about two months, after the poultry producer flagged higher feed, diesel and packaging costs caused by the Middle East war. Australia's housing downturn is dividing the earnings season into winners and losers amid high interest rates and tax reforms.
Credit Market Caution
Bond veteran Scott Colbert says "don't get too greedy" as credit gets pricey, a rare moment of digging in across his four-decade career. Fund managers keep favoring stocks despite the rise in global bond yields — the "elephant in the room" they appear to be ignoring. UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja sees margin pressure as a key risk for stocks in 2027, after strong US earnings growth pushes them higher. Money-market funds are providing stock-market rocket fuel through ABCP leverage.
Private Credit's New Frontier
UK pensions — a $1tn pool — are private credit's next big thing, with a deal involving Standard Life, CVC and Goldman Sachs tapping the increasingly popular source. PGIM will buy up to $3bn of Green Sky home improvement loans under a three-year arrangement.
Housing Squeeze
US housing affordability worsened for the first time in almost three years, as higher borrowing costs soaked up a bigger chunk of earnings for new homebuyers. Hovnanian swung to a third-quarter loss as the home builder continues to cope with a stagnant, frozen housing market.
Crypto's Squeeze and Scrutiny
Bitcoin extended gains beyond $72,000 after a record short squeeze forced bearish traders out, though signs of fresh leveraged longs replacing them remain limited. Crypto stocks continued to surge after an upbeat White House meeting where Trump reaffirmed support for the Clarity Act. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission head says crypto will get market-structure rules even if Congress fails to pass landmark legislation. CME Group's CEO sparred with the CFTC chair, arguing the agency must do more to prevent manipulation on prediction markets. Two Binance employees were detained in the UAE amid police inquiries, a sign of the legal pressure facing the world's largest crypto exchange. World Liberty's stablecoin has become a partisan target, with Elizabeth Warren joined by some Democrats who voted for the Genius Act.
Commodities Beyond Oil
Aluminum's key US regional premium tumbled after the Trump administration indicated it would lower tariffs on certain Canadian exports. Raw sugar climbed to its highest in more than a year on signs of Indian buying interest amid prospects of eased import duties. Ghana expects its cocoa harvest to drop 13% next season on adverse weather and disease, a setback that could further boost global prices. Natural gas futures settled lower with little consolation from the smallest inventory build of the season to date. Canadian producer prices rose 0.6% in July, driven by a jump in fuel costs with the resumption of the Middle East conflict. Climate is also a market factor, as heatwaves threaten Rhine River water levels and hurt Germany's economy.
Refining's Structural Decline
The energy crisis won't save western oil refineries, with North America and Europe set to lose further capacity because of investor wariness. Europe's refining capacity is set to shrink by 20% over the next decade despite the war shock. Ukraine said it hit Russia's Taneco refinery and a small Black Sea oil terminal as Moscow battles a second wave of gasoline shortages. Trump wants to revive Keystone XL, but the industry is pursuing a trio of alternative pipelines without the hot-button name. Elsewhere, driverless tanks are being deployed against wildfires fueled by World War II ammo, while Elon Musk leans into fossil fuels.
Defense's New Wave
A small Swedish defense stock is Europe's best performer in 2026, up 80%, an ascent its chief executive puts down to a "third wave" of military spending focused on computer systems and drones.
ETF Boom
The red-hot ETF market is being driven by five big 2026 themes, including a "triple crown" and a Goldman Sachs comeback, according to the Trillions podcast.
Deals Roundup
James Hardie will sell its European Fermacell business to Swiss building-materials company Holcim for $980M as it seeks to focus on higher-growth and higher-return markets. Holcim is paying €840M ($981M) for the unit, expanding its building, sustainable flooring and walling solutions. Vylor raised $1.1bn in investment-grade bonds that will help finance a payout to soon-to-be former parent Corteva. The five owners of EverBank are looking for an exit three years after their 2023 purchase, having clashed over the Florida bank's strategy.
Distress Watch
TAMKO reported a more than 50% earnings drop just weeks after borrowing money to fund a dividend to its owners. Clearlake-backed FinThrive said earnings fell 17% in the second quarter and drew on a $150M credit line to bolster liquidity. Guggenheim loans are trading in distressed territory after an investor call, as CEO Mark Walter's business empire faces a probe into his insurance holdings. The DOJ sought Egan-Jones records in the Walter probe, since the rater provided the only known ratings for more than a fifth of those insurance assets. Christine Hunsicker was sentenced to five years for a $300mn fraud she had blamed on a head injury. Gregory Fenelon, the self-declared $14bn man, is raising big questions with his SEC filings. PublicSquare, the MAGA marketplace backed by Trump Jr., racked up costs and consulting fees before shifting into fintech, ending in a 99% stock drop.
More Deal Flow
Dangote Group has offered East African countries a 30% equity stake in the giant refinery planned for the region. A Trump-backed dronemaker struck a $22.3M deal to sell counter-drone detection equipment to a Persian Gulf energy firm. A Boston-area prep school that taught President John F. Kennedy plans to borrow almost $35M to upgrade its classroom and athletics facilities. Orion180 filed for a US IPO as it looks to carve out a bigger share of the fast-growing specialty homeowners and flood insurance market. Nineteen Brazilian municipalities have joined the BHP and Vale dam collapse payout scheme, a blow to the English High Court class action over the 2015 disaster.
US Data and Trade
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index rose 0.2% to 99.5 in July, indicating that moderate growth could be coming. America's U.S. debt now stands above $40tn — alongside an experimental vaccine for skin cancer. Trade talks between Canada and the US resumed as a new tariff deadline looms, with the two sides still apart on several key issues despite the president's claims of a deal.
Geopolitics Wrap
The USS Abraham Lincoln left the Middle East after a nine-month deployment largely in support of US operations against Iran. A weary US aircraft carrier departed the region as Russia takes advantage of Ukraine's depleted stockpile. Russian missiles killed 13 in Kyiv as Moscow intensifies attacks against Ukraine's dwindling interceptor stock. Japan's lobbying could not save a top judge from Trump's International Criminal Court sanctions.
Sector Roundups
Venezuela-US oil deals remain clouded in secrecy, with companies signing contracts while the process stays opaque and the rules uncertain. The latest energy and utilities market talk offers insight on Ithaca Energy and oil futures. On the health side, the newest roundup provides insight on Merck KGaA, Moderna and Novonesis.
Misc Corporate
SpiceJet wrangled a last-minute reprieve as India's food safety regulator cracks the whip. Wonder, Marc Lore's food venture, is targeting an IPO with a $9bn vertical platform spanning production to delivery. The PGA Tour's new management wants golf to become more commercial, though others worry billionaires have too much say. Wall Street firms are now recruiting law students in their first semester, a "crazy" early-hiring frenzy drawing backlash. Rainmakers are in talks to leave Weil Gotshal amid a poaching frenzy reshaping Big Law. Cruise lines are hiking gratuities, deposit requirements and package fees, and it is all adding up. Lyft charged a passenger $150 for vomiting in a car — one he says was not even the vehicle he rode in. In First FT, Moderna's cancer shot drives a share surge, alongside tanker demand and Zelenskyy firing a top aide.
Personal Finance
High-quality bonds remain safer than stocks but have been swinging in value, so investors should move cautiously, our columnist advises. Last-minute travel deals over Labor Day and beyond rest on one key principle: flexibility. For those seeking guidance, a roundup of top financial advisors compares credentials, fees and portfolio options at major registered investment advisor firms.