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Moderna's Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough Reshapes Outlook

Financial Times Companies •
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Moderna's mRNA-based melanoma vaccine, developed with Merck, marks a pivotal shift from pandemic dependence. The treatment targets individual cancers and may expand to lung, bladder, and kidney variants.

The breakthrough comes as Moderna's revenue dropped from nearly $20bn in 2022 to $2bn last year. Its market cap now exceeds $60bn, doubling earlier projections. Political headwinds under the second Trump administration, particularly from Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, have challenged mRNA vaccine acceptance.

Investors are optimistic, with Bernstein analysts projecting $235mn in earnings six years post-launch. RBC estimates broader cancer applications could add $30bn in equity value. Despite being lossmaking, Moderna's cash reserves fell from $11bn to $5bn, prompting potential share sales.

The current investor enthusiasm mirrors 2021's Covid vaccine peak. Unlike Pfizer, Moderna has found a post-pandemic path forward, leveraging its mRNA platform beyond infectious diseases.