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Moderna's Cancer Vaccine Trial Boosts Shares but Data Remains Limited

Financial Times Companies •
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Moderna shares surged as much as 113 per cent after the company and Merck announced an interim analysis showing their personalised mRNA therapy INT extended recurrence‑free survival in high‑risk melanoma patients when combined with Keytruda. The trial, led by Professor Georgina Long of the Melanoma Institute Australia, reported statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits with no new safety signals.

The therapy is custom‑made for each patient’s tumour, marking a potential landmark for adjuvant melanoma treatment. However, the companies have not released detailed recurrence rates, hazard ratios, or the trial’s predefined success boundaries, leaving analysts such as Citigroup’s Geoffrey Meacham unable to gauge the magnitude or durability of the benefit.

Financially, the news lifted Moderna’s market cap toward $50bn, a crucial boost for a firm burning cash on only $1.9bn in 2025 revenue. Analysts project peak sales of $4.3bn in melanoma and $6.6bn in non‑small‑cell lung cancer, though a 50/50 profit split with Merck applies. The stock’s jump also reflects a short squeeze, with 13.5 % of shares sold short at month‑end.

Further data are expected at the ESMO conference in Madrid in October, which will clarify commercial uptake and platform‑level read‑through for Moderna’s oncology pipeline.