Hong Kong businesses face China as both opportunity and threat. Insurers Prudential and AIA felt this recently when Beijing began levying mainland income tax on returns from offshore savings-like insurance products sold to Chinese customers. In May, new rules making it harder for mainland customers to open offshore accounts pushed shares in banks and insurers down as much as 15 per cent. Banks recovered but insurers haven't: trading at near two times book value, roughly in line with peers like Chubb and Allianz, down from a multiple nearer three before the pandemic.

A fifth of AIA's business is generated in the mainland, with mainland clients accounting for about half of the 40 per cent from Hong Kong. Prudential relies more heavily on Hong Kong. Chinese officials insist taxing returns was not a change but worldwide application of existing policy. The May crackdown involved tighter checks on source of funds.

Reducing legal grey areas may encourage legitimate funds to flow to established brands. Asia's rising and ageing middle classes theme remains intact. At least a fifth of China's population will be 65 or older by 2033, up 6 percentage points from 2023 per McKinsey forecasts. Asia is forecast to generate more than half of global premium growth Allianz expects by 2036.