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Tesla Cybercab Fleet Profitability Skepticism

Hacker News •
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Tesla is again soliciting fleet buyers for Cybercab robotaxis, promising revenue sharing on its Robotaxi network — a pitch Elon Musk has made since 2019. At that year's Autonomy Day, Musk claimed owners could earn up to $30,000 annually per vehicle and called Teslas "appreciating assets." None of it materialized. Owners paid up to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving on the promise of taxi income, yet not one can operate as a robotaxi today.

Dutch leasing firm Mister Green bought over 4,000 Teslas betting on value retention and robotaxi revenue. Instead, Tesla slashed new-car prices for two years, causing used Teslas to depreciate at roughly three times the broader market rate. Mister Green went bankrupt in December 2025, wiping out $40 million in bondholder value. Another company in LA built a fleet in 2018-2020 for the promised "Tesla Network" revenue and shut down when it never arrived.

The core tell: if Cybercabs genuinely printed $30,000 yearly, Tesla would keep every car rather than sell them. Tesla controls the network, software, dispatch, pricing, and revenue split. Fleet buyers absorb capital costs and depreciation while Tesla keeps high-margin software revenue and fare cuts. This is asset-light risk offloading — the same FSD playbook: sell future income promises, collect upfront, let buyers hold the bag.