Markets 24-Hour Briefing

Public Markets

Energy Markets Turmoil

Oil prices plunged 12% in the steepest single-day decline in four years as conflicting statements about Strait of Hormuz flows sent traders scrambling for clarity. The International Energy Agency's proposal for the largest-ever strategic reserve release aimed to tame crude prices that had spiked following the Iran war, though analysts remain skeptical about whether such measures can solve Gulf supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco warned of "catastrophic consequences" if the conflict drags on, as the kingdom races to restore 70% of normal shipments. The US raised its 2027 oil output forecast after prices soared on Middle East supply concerns, while Russia prepares for an oil-revenue surge in coming weeks as the war disrupts Black Sea crude shipments.

Fixed Income & Currency

Japanese government bonds extended gains tracking overnight Treasury rallies as traders increasingly priced in a September Fed rate cut. The US dollar came under pressure as oil prices dictated currency movements, with the greenback at the mercy of crude's volatility amid the spiraling Middle East conflict. European bonds rebounded as energy prices dropped following Trump's prediction that the Iran war will end soon. In China, the government bond yield curve reached its steepest level in four years as inflation concerns triggered by the Iran war piled pressure on longer-term debt. Traders aggressively dumped bullish Treasury futures after the Mideast conflict triggered a surge in oil prices and sparked inflationary worries.

Corporate & Equity Markets

Salesforce plans a record $25 billion debt sale to fund share buybacks, while Amazon led a record $65 billion corporate borrowing rush as companies took advantage of calmer markets. Oracle shares rallied after the company reassured investors over its AI data center bet, posting better-than-expected earnings and raising its revenue forecast. In private markets, private credit lenders provided a more than $400 million delayed draw term loan for Blackstone's Enverus after supplying roughly $3 billion in December. Meanwhile, Starboard Value built a $350 million stake in Car Max, seeing an opportunity to accelerate the used car retailer's turnaround under incoming CEO Keith Barr.

Geopolitical Developments

President Trump announced the US will get its first new oil refinery in 50 years with investment from India's Reliance Industries, hailing the project in Brownsville, Texas, as Iran war drives higher fuel prices. The US destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz as oil price swings continued amid mixed messages on US naval escorts in the crucial waterway. The Pentagon reported that 140 service members have been injured in the Iran war, with eight Americans seriously wounded but the bulk already returned to duty. In a separate development, Toronto-Dominion Bank paid former CEO Bharat Masrani C$3 million ($2.2 last year to advise on its anti-money-laundering remediation efforts.

Natural Gas & Power Markets

European natural gas dropped after Trump predicted the Iran war will end soon, as he faces mounting pressure over how the conflict has upended energy markets. The UK added natural gas to storage in recent days as a price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict attracted imports. India invoked emergency powers to redirect liquefied petroleum gas supplies away from industrial users to households, seeking to shield ordinary people from the impact of the Middle East war. Meanwhile, Gulf airlines slowly increased flights even as countries continued to intercept missiles and drones from Iran in their skies.

Mining & Materials

Rio Tinto secured almost $1.2 billion in financing for its Argentina lithium project from four international lenders, supporting work on the $2.5 billion Rincon project in Salta Province. Australian plastics recycling company Samsara Eco plans to tailor microscopic organisms to retrieve materials from electronic waste, targeting critical minerals. In China, CATL shares soared 10% as the AI boom boosted demand for data centers, riding a surge beyond electric vehicles. The Iran war is already affecting aluminum, helium, sulfur and more, with prices of some commodities rising while stockpiles of others could dwindle as the conflict drags on.

Transportation & Logistics

A tense global hunt for liquefied natural gas sparked by the Middle East war is starting to shift physical supply flows, as more shipments bound for Europe divert to Asia. The average on-highway price for diesel jumped 25% in a week as Mideast disruptions also lifted air and sea shipping rates. Wizz Air faced short seller pressure after the Iran war wiped out profit, with the budget airline's CEO saying the crisis is "more manageable" than others after forecasting a €50 million hit to its bottom line. Boeing said wiring issues will delay some 737 Max deliveries, though the delay won't prevent meeting its 2026 sales goal of about 500 Max jets.

Financial Services & Banking

Cliffwater LLC faces redemption requests exceeding 7% from its flagship private credit fund, while multi-manager hedge funds suffered losses amid huge volatility in oil and bond prices. The European Central Bank vowed not to allow a repeat of last inflation shock, ensuring the Iran war doesn't inflict the same pain on the eurozone as Russia's invasion of Ukraine did. StanChart plans to double the number of Singapore bankers serving wealthy Chinese despite increased scrutiny of flows from China after high-profile money-laundering scandals. Meanwhile, Peru faces a new lawsuit in the US over unpaid $99 million arbitration stemming from protests that blocked toll collection.

Technology & Innovation

Microsoft backed Anthropic in its legal fight with the Pentagon, throwing its weight behind the AI start-up's lawsuit challenging its designation as a supply chain risk. Meta acquired Moltbook, the social network just for AI bots, as Matt Schlicht joins the Meta Superintelligence Lab two months after helping kick off Silicon Valley's obsession with artificial intelligence agents. YouTube added a tool to help public figures report fake videos as social media companies face pressure to crack down on so-called deepfake videos. OpenAI banned the shooter's ChatGPT account but did not alert authorities, a move the family of a Tumbler Ridge shooting victim claims amounted to fatal negligence in their lawsuit.

Real Estate & Infrastructure

Pay Pay Corp. is betting its strong position in Japan's cashless payments market and support from cornerstone investors will insulate its US IPO plans from market turbulence. Singapore's Sembcorp Industries seeks a $2.1 billion loan to back its purchase of power generator and retailer Alinta Energy in Australia. First Brands Group agreed to sell one of its four remaining operating businesses to an affiliate of Active Dynamics Group for $50 million, manufacturing pollution control systems. In the UK, marijuana bonds are getting expensive amid a flurry of demand as municipal bond investors clamor for tax-free debt sold by California issuers.

Emerging Markets & International Finance

Bonds in the Philippines face the biggest challenge in Asia should the ongoing Middle East conflict lead to a sustained increase in oil prices, while China remains insulated. Colombia's primaries threw the May presidential election wide open, reviving hopes for a new market-friendly administration and triggering a rebound in sovereign bonds. Argentina's bond rally stalled as President Javier Milei meets investors in New York, limited by the junk label and war fallout. The IMF's former top deputy warned that governments worldwide don't have the fiscal capacity needed to respond to any economic downturn caused by an oil shock fueled by prolonged war in Iran.

Precious Metals

Gold edged higher in early Asian trade amid divergent signals, facing opposing forces as risk sentiment fluctuated. The precious metal held steady as traders navigated conflicting assessments of how long the Iran war could last, with geopolitical uncertainty providing support while risk-on moves in other markets created headwinds. Silver and platinum also saw increased volatility as investors weighed safe-haven demand against industrial demand concerns in an environment of rising energy costs and potential economic slowdown.

Private Equity

Large-Scale Fundraising

Private equity and venture capital firms secured massive commitments across AI, climate infrastructure, and Asian buyouts, with Paris-based AMI's $1 billion seed round—backed by figures like Yann LeCun—marking Europe's largest ever. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners raised $1.4 billion for its inaugural green credit fund, targeting renewable energy debt, while Swedish legal AI platform Legora tripled its valuation to $5.55 billion on a $550 million round led by Accel. BNP Paribas Asset Management gathered €540 million for its first GP stakes strategy, and Bain Capital closed a combined $12.5 billion for its latest Asia and Japan buyout vehicles, underscoring sustained institutional demand for regional exposure.

Platform Build-Outs & Add-On Acquisitions

Portfolio companies backed by North Edge, Thompson Street, and Wynnchurch accelerated consolidation through targeted add-ons. Ramarketing acquired ISR Market Research to bolster its pharmaceutical outsourcing data, ATIS bought vertical transportation consultant Soberman Engineering, and Hydraulic Technologies expanded its industrial handling equipment footprint with Foxtrot Industriel. In parallel, Ardian agreed to buy Italian self-storage operator Casaforte, adding to its €300 million-plus European platform, while Bridgepoint’s Fera Science purchased Qotho Minerals to enhance its minerals testing services. LDC and Main Capital also completed add-ons in fleet management and neurotechnology, respectively.

Secondary Market Liquidity

The secondary market saw multi-billion-dollar supply as Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan launched "Project Ember," a portfolio sale exceeding $3 billion including buyout fund stakes. Ardian and ADIA separately targeted a $20 billion real estate secondaries vehicle, highlighting deep capital pools for legacy asset transitions. Meanwhile, Evercore hired a senior APAC hire to expand its private capital advisory, reflecting growing cross-border secondary activity. Ardian’s Ava Mallin cautioned that the market remains undercapitalized despite inflows from private wealth, indicating structural capacity constraints.

LP Returns & Risk Sentiment

Large institutional investors reported solid results even as firms debated market risks. Ontario Teachers’ posted a 6.7% net return for 2025, growing assets to $279.4 billion. Partners Group CEO David Layton argued that fears around AI investment bubbles and private credit leverage are "wildly overdone," noting his firm avoids excessive evergreen fund leverage. This comes as a "net-zero rethink" could catalyze new climate investing, while top European LPs signaled Middle East capital will remain important despite geopolitical shifts.

Sector-Specific Bets & Tech Shifts

Firms deployed capital into healthcare data and climate tech, with BV Investment backing Moxe Health’s clinical data exchange platform. In industrials, XPV Water Partners launched OceanSight, a subsea sensing platform, and EQT explored a $6 billion sale of Linux developer SUSE. The automotive sector saw activity as Searchlight capitalized on rising RWI demand in its Euclid exit, while Monomoy acquired Jiffy Lube outlets from Shell. Meanwhile, AI is forcing Saa S vendors to rethink product development, and a SpaceX veteran’s new venture aims to launch returning satellites by 2027. Rebar raised $14 million to accelerate HVAC quote generation via AI, and European policymakers face criticism for underfunding green tech firms despite stringent regulations.

Sector Investment

Real Estate & Infrastructure Fundraising

Weighed on fundraising at the PERE Network Asia Summit, where geopolitical risks from Middle East conflict were cited as a key concern for commercial real estate markets. This follows a broader trend where the fundraising pipeline begins to unclog, with capital targets for private real estate funds in January 2026 down 15% year-on-year despite a rising count of funds seeking capital. In response, major investors are pivoting away from single-asset deals, with South Korea’s GEPS announcing plans to double its real estate exposure over five years and commit $250 million to commingled funds within 12 months. This strategy shift was underscored by Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing closing a $2.88 billion fund, highlighting that scale and diversified vehicles are becoming critical for navigating a cautious LP environment.

Green Investment Strategy

Amid these real estate adjustments, infrastructure specialists are pushing into commingled funds to capture growth in climate-focused assets. Ed Northam, MAM’s global head of green investments, stated that “scale is how you win” in U.S. renewables, even as project delivery becomes more challenging. This approach mirrors the pension fund move toward pooled vehicles, suggesting that for both real estate and green infrastructure, large-scale, fund-based commitments are the preferred route to access sectors facing heightened complexity and capital requirements.