Markets 24-Hour Briefing

Public Markets

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices held below $90 as markets weighed mixed signals from the Middle East conflict, with Brent crude edging higher in early European trade. Saudi Arabia ramped up production by roughly 8% last month ahead of the conflict, while Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged to act first in releasing oil reserves to soften supply shocks. The International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million barrel release from global strategic reserves to prevent supply disruptions and tame crude prices. Meanwhile, the US raised its 2027 oil output forecast after prices soared on Iran war supply disruptions, highlighting America's growing role as a crude producer. In the metals market, soaring sulfur prices are creating unintended consequences as global efforts to phase out fossil fuels erode supply of cheap sulfur.

Geopolitical Tensions

The Strait of Hormuz remained all but closed as three vessels were hit on Wednesday, according to a British maritime agency. While mainstream Western shipping remained largely suspended, recent 24-hour observations revealed a slight increase in Iran-linked traffic, specifically involving two sanctioned VLCCs and China-linked ships. The US military investigation found outdated targeting data may have resulted in a mistaken missile strike on a school in Iran, undercutting President Trump's assertion that Iran could be to blame. The conflict is reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and diplomatic alliances across the globe. In Ukraine, officials reported deadly strikes on a factory city, highlighting the country's continued capability to hit high-value targets inside Russia.

Financial Markets

US stock futures churned before Wednesday's bell as the Middle East conflict continued and crude topped $90 a barrel amid vessel attacks in the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 Index looked vulnerable technically as Wall Street traders pored over charts to determine how much further the index might fall amid war turmoil. Hedge fund Caxton lost more than $600 million in Iran war fallout, with the firm's $9 billion fund down 7% last week as market upheaval hurt macro traders. Meanwhile, Citadel and Exodus Point suffered losses amid huge volatility in oil and bond prices, highlighting the challenges facing multi-manager hedge funds during geopolitical crises.

Fixed Income & Credit

A dramatic selloff in the UK's bonds since conflict broke out in the Middle East presented a buying opportunity for investors willing to brave the volatility. Oracle Corp.'s credit risk improved the most since February after the database giant's quarterly report helped ease investor fears about AI-related capital spending. Morgan Stanley's credit trading desk pitched shorting Kronos Worldwide's bonds, a titanium-dioxide manufacturer already struggling before the war in Iran sent energy costs higher. The European Central Bank won't allow a repeat of last inflation shock, with President Christine Lagarde vowing to prevent the Iran war from inflicting the same inflation pain on the eurozone as Russia's invasion of Ukraine did.

Technology & AI

Salesforce Inc. kicked off an eight-part US high-grade bond offering to fund a share buyback, testing investor appetite for software-sector debt. Nvidia struck a $2 billion deal with AI cloud provider Nebius, continuing the chip giant's dealmaking spree that deploys huge cash reserves into funding its own customers. Taiwan's largest life insurers braced for billions in value declines as the industry transitions to a more rigorous accounting framework. Meanwhile, Chat GPT and other chatbots received approval for official use in the US Senate, with new guidelines allowing Senate aides to use AI tools for research, drafting and editing documents.

Private Markets & Investment

CVC Capital Partners Plc's next flagship fund could set a record, potentially bigger than its predecessor - still the largest pool of capital ever raised for buyouts. However, private equity investors would have been better off parking their money in public markets over the last five years, even when gains from the Magnificent 7 stocks are stripped out. The rising strain in the private credit market resulted from years of sloppy underwriting, according to Pacific Investment Management Co., with JPMorgan marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups. Japan's main banking lobby plans to establish risk management guidelines for lenders offering leveraged loans as transactions soar in the country.

Corporate Developments

Campbell's cut its fiscal-year outlook as it reported a decline in second-quarter sales, dragged down by weak demand for its snacks. Cintas agreed to acquire UniFirst in a $5.5 billion deal, more than four years after first bidding for the smaller uniform supplier. Eli Lilly & Co will invest $3 billion in China over the next decade to expand local production, with a focus on weight loss drugs as the US drugmaker looks to cement its dominance in the booming obesity market. Amazon led a record US corporate borrowing rush with nearly $50 billion in bond sales as companies took advantage of calmer markets.

Regional Markets

Japan's dollar emerged as an unlikely haven, buoyed by elevated oil and gas prices and growing bets that the central bank may raise interest rates as early as next week. Vietnam moved to cushion consumers from a sharp jump in fuel costs as the Middle East conflict stoked growing concerns over global energy supplies. Greece will impose a profit margin cap on fuel and groceries to keep prices of key goods under control and prevent further surges stemming from Middle East turmoil. Malaysia's cabinet received a report on the probe into anti-graft chief Azam Baki's shareholdings, referring the matter to the chief secretary to follow up.

Emerging Markets

The war in Iran significantly changes the game plan for central banks in developing nations, with economists noting that higher oil prices will force policy adjustments across emerging markets. Kenya is weighing plans to extend a colonial-era rail line to its northwestern oil fields to ferry crude to an Indian Ocean port by 2030, offering an alternative to a previously proposed pipeline. Peru faced a new lawsuit in the US over unpaid $99 million arbitration stemming from protests that blocked toll collection, highlighting ongoing infrastructure investment challenges in the region.

Real Estate & Infrastructure

Logistics providers, manufacturers and data-center suppliers signed up for sprawling facilities after years of weak demand, signaling a return to big warehouse demand. BlackRock donated $100 million to trade-worker training as part of an infrastructure-investing push, telling lawmakers that trillions are needed to build out infrastructure. The war in the Middle East costs the regional tourism industry $600 million a day as thousands of travelers cancel trips after cities such as Dubai were targeted by Iranian strikes.

Regulatory & Legal

The Justice Department probed Iran's use of Binance to evade sanctions, focusing on money flowing through the crypto platform to a network backing terror groups including Yemen's Houthi militants. Global banks pushed back on India's offshore FX reporting plan, according to people familiar with the matter. The US raised its 2027 oil output forecast after prices soared on Iran war supply disruptions, highlighting America's growing role as a crude producer.

Private Equity

Major Deals & Exits

Blackstone secured a majority stake in Advanced Cooling Technologies, expanding its industrial holdings, while simultaneously backing a $16 billion private equity platform through a minority investment in Atlas Holdings alongside Blue Owl Capital. The dual moves underscore a strategic push into specialized industrial and large-scale platform investments. On the exit front, EQT led a record-breaking $5.5 billion secondary share sale for Swiss dermatology firm Galderma, marking the largest such exit in Swiss history and highlighting robust demand for mature portfolio assets. This follows CVC Capital Partners reporting a record €21.9 billion in realised exits for 2025, a 77% year-on-year increase, as the firm capitalised on favourable market conditions to crystallise gains across its global portfolio.

AI Investment Shift

Venture capital firms are recalibrating around agentic AI, shifting capital from flashy demonstrations to startups with proven production usage, measurable outcomes, and clear revenue pathways. This pragmatic turn is echoed by investors like Khosla Ventures' Ethan Choi, who discussed AI's impact on entry-level jobs and a flipped investing philosophy, indicating a broader sector maturation. The trend is fuelled by colossal funding rounds, such as the €1 billion seed raise for Paris-based AI lab AMI, Europe's largest ever, which will build next-generation "world models," signalling that deep-tech AI remains a magnet for major capital despite the focus on commercial viability.

Fund Structures & Secondaries

The rise of evergreen funds is reshaping private markets dynamics, with early analysis from Hamilton Lane showing they outperform traditional closed-end funds over one- and three-year periods, prompting a strategic rethink among limited partners. Concurrently, the secondaries market is gaining prominence, with exit visibility becoming a key criterion in deal evaluation as firms like A&M Capital target the mid-market for what they see as a more attractive risk-return profile. This aligns with broader industry data showing a surge in exit activity, as detailed in CVC's record results and EQT's blockbuster Galderma disposal, creating a deeper pool of assets for secondary transactions.

Mid-Market & Sector Activity

Private equity dealmaking in the mid-market showed resilience with several bolt-on acquisitions. Hyperion's Ranger platform acquired MarkOne Safety Solutions, a UK-based provider of fire and emergency lighting systems, adding to its industrial safety portfolio. In the marketing services sector, NorthEdge Capital-backed Ramarketing purchased ISR Market Research, a pharma outsourcing specialist, to bolster its data and intelligence capabilities. Meanwhile, Bertram Capital portfolio company Cogency Global expanded into the UK by buying Elemental CoSec, enhancing its governance and compliance service offering, a move reflecting the ongoing consolidation in business support services.

Infrastructure & Large-Cap Activity

Infrastructure-focused firms are active on both the investment and exit fronts. Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners secured €1.3 billion at first close for its flagship green credit fund, tapping demand for sustainable credit products. On the corporate side, Brookfield Asset Management is exploring a $1.3 billion acquisition of World Freight Company from EQT and PAI, testing the market for large logistics assets. Separately, TPG completed a $4.75 billion sale of its Intersect business to Google, a major exit in the energy infrastructure space following the spin-off of the grid-tied power operations.

Pension & Platform Performance

Institutional investors reported solid returns, with Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan posting a 6.7% net return for 2025 as assets grew to $279.4 billion, demonstrating the continued importance of private markets to large pension funds. This performance occurs against a backdrop where GPs are growing less confident about PE's relative outperformance, according to industry analysis, even as exit volumes hit records. The tension between strong realised gains and future return concerns is a defining feature of the current cycle, with firms like CVC and EQT showing that high-quality asset sales can still drive exceptional results.

Fintech & Health Tech Valuations

The fintech and health tech sectors saw significant valuation milestones. Health insurance platform Alan achieved a €5 billion valuation following a new funding round, underscoring investor appetite for digital insurance disruptors. In legal tech, Swedish startup Legora tripled its value to $5.55 billion with a $550 million Series D led by Accel, highlighting the premium on AI-powered solutions for professional services. These deals contrast with the venture capital shift towards outcome-driven AI investing, showing that proven scale in vertical Saa S still commands massive premiums.

Sector Investment

Real Estate & Private Credit

PERE Credit will merge with Real Estate Capital Europe in June, creating a global platform for real estate private credit coverage. This structural shift coincides with emerging signs of a transaction market recovery, as noted by MSCI's Tom Leahy. While deal volumes have stalled, increased large trades and record data center deployment are building momentum, suggesting a potential inflection point for the sector.

Energy Transition & Geopolitical Risk

RGREEN has raised €900 million for its fifth European energy transition fund, with approximately 70% already deployed and full investment expected by year-end, underscoring sustained capital flow into decarbonization infrastructure. Meanwhile, at the PERE Network Asia Summit, participants warned of potential spillover effects from Middle East conflict on commercial real estate. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing closed a $2.88 billion fund, while KKR is actively repositioning its real estate portfolio, reflecting a bifurcated market where capital continues to deploy selectively despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty.