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Iran-China Shipping Surge Raises Gulf Tensions

Bloomberg Markets •
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Ship tracking data reveals a slight uptick in Iran-linked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with eight commercial transits recorded on Tuesday and four more early Wednesday. Most vessels have ties to Iran or Chinese commercial interests, including two sanctioned VLCCs seen exiting the Persian Gulf fully laden for Asia.

This activity comes amid escalating regional hostilities, including an attack on the cargo ship Mayuree Naree and the destruction of 10 Iranian mine-laying vessels confirmed by President Trump. Electronic warfare tactics including spoofing and signal jamming have complicated real-time monitoring, with several vessels deactivating AIS transponders in high-risk areas.

Despite occasional successful crossings, the bulk of global shipping tonnage remains suspended on either side of the strait. Since February 28, approximately 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have transited the waterway, according to Tankertrackers.com. The data underscores how sanctioned Iranian tankers often operate without AIS signals until reaching the Strait of Malacca, about 10 days after passing Fujairah.