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War Disrupts Global Commodity Markets Beyond Oil

New York Times Business •
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The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is sending shockwaves through global commodity markets far beyond energy, with prices surging for aluminum, helium, and agricultural inputs. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint, has been effectively closed since the war began, disrupting supplies of materials essential to manufacturing, agriculture, and technology.

Aluminum prices jumped 8 percent in March as major Gulf producers in Qatar and Bahrain halted shipments. The region accounts for roughly 8 percent of global aluminum supply, where energy-intensive production benefits from local oil and gas. Meanwhile, Qatar's helium production—representing about one-third of global supply—has been disrupted since Iran attacked the Ras Laffan Industrial City, threatening semiconductor manufacturing and medical equipment operations.

Agricultural markets face mounting pressure as well. Urea fertilizer prices have risen as much as 35 percent since the conflict began, with one-third of global traded supply normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Sulfur, essential for fertilizer production and metal processing, has become trapped on the Persian Gulf side of the strait. Sugar markets in Brazil are also shifting as ethanol prices surge alongside oil, potentially reducing sugar output when the next harvest begins.