Iran's foreign minister arrived in Muscat on Saturday for talks centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow choke point that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. The visit follows a week of heavy clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces in the waterway, raising the risk of disruption to tanker traffic that feeds refineries across Asia and Europe.

Oman has long served as a back channel between Tehran and Washington, and the choice of Muscat signals both sides may be seeking de-escalation without public concessions. Shipping insurers have already raised war-risk premiums for vessels transiting the strait, adding costs that ultimately flow through to crude benchmarks. Brent futures have swung in a $4 range since the clashes began, reflecting trader uncertainty over whether the diplomatic track can contain the military one.

For energy markets, the critical variable is duration. A prolonged standoff could force rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two weeks of transit time and millions in charter costs per voyage. The Oman talks represent the first structured diplomatic engagement since the latest flare-up, but with no public agenda or timeline, markets remain priced for volatility rather than resolution.