Markets 24-Hour Briefing

Public Markets

Market Turmoil Amid Iran Conflict

US stock futures fell sharply as the Iran war entered its fourth day, with S&P 500 futures down 1.4% and Nasdaq futures sliding 2% amid fears of prolonged energy market disruption. Brent crude surged to its highest premium over Middle Eastern Dubai crude since 2022, while diesel prices jumped to their highest since summer 2023 as the conflict threatened global supplies. Treasury yields rose further above 4% as traders slashed Federal Reserve rate-cut bets, with US Treasuries slumping for a second day amid mounting inflation concerns.

Energy & Commodities Shockwaves

Oil prices jumped following strikes in Iran, with Qatar LNG halting the world's largest export facility, causing European natural gas to surge 40% to a three-year high. Coal prices jumped the most in three years as the LNG shutdown boosted fuel-switching needs. Saudi Aramco is exploring Red Sea export options to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraq halted crude oil shipments via the key pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port. Iran called on all sides to protect ships transiting Hormuz, its top economic partner's first direct appeal for safe passage.

Corporate Earnings & Deals

Best Buy projected weak growth for fiscal 2026 as consumer demand slows, despite returning to positive same-store sales. On Holding slid after its 2026 revenue outlook underwhelmed investors, while AutoZone shares fell as fourth-quarter revenue missed forecasts. Ziff Davis struck a $1.2 billion deal to sell its connectivity division to Accenture, and Medline shareholders began a $3.4 billion stake sale capitalizing on the medical supplier's stock rally since its IPO. Rosebank Industries plans to buy two US specialty manufacturers for $3.05 billion, tapping equity markets to fund the deals.

Currency & Bond Market Moves

The dollar surged for its biggest two-day rally in almost a year as the Iran war stoked inflation fears and spurred haven demand. Egypt's pound briefly weakened past 50 per dollar before paring losses, signaling investor fears over prolonged Middle East conflict. UK bonds rallied as the government slashed bond sales to a three-year low, reflecting improved finances. Japanese government bonds fell despite firm demand at a 10-year note sale, as inflation fears overshadowed the auction.

Tech Sector Under Pressure

MongoDB was downgraded by Baird on Atlas growth concerns and AI revenue timing questions. Software stocks saw short interest at its highest since the global financial crisis, while software sector rout prompted buyback plans that analysts say aren't enough to soothe investors. Palantir is back on Wall Street's buy list after a 38% plunge, with Wall Street's bullish sentiment at record levels due to potential growth in the company's defense business.

Economic Policy & Central Banks

UK economy growth forecast was cut to 1.1% for 2026 amid global uncertainty. Czech central bank sees robust growth as expansion tops forecasts. South Africa interest-rate traders priced in a chance of a hike later this month as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher. Colombia plans 50% reciprocal tariffs on hundreds of Ecuadorian imports, intensifying an economically damaging spat between the ideological foes.

Private Markets & Investment

Thoma Bravo agreed to acquire third-party logistics provider WWEX Group and merge it with an existing portfolio company. Ares Management emerged as the primary buyer for a $2.2 billion private credit portfolio sold by Arcmont Asset Management. Blackstone called for more active management and private assets in 401(k)s, contending index investing alone is no longer sufficient to manage risk and fund retirements. Capula Investment Management faced a lawsuit from its former US compliance head alleging wrongful termination for raising concerns about improper expenses.

Regional Market Impact

European shares skidded to one-month lows as the Middle East war dragged on, with European bank stocks' selloff deemed excessive by JPMorgan analysts. South African stocks hit a record 12-month winning streak, with Bank of America saying further gains are likely thanks to booming metals prices and a firmer rand. UAE aluminum maker Emirates Global Aluminum is considering using offshore stocks to counter ship-loading delays from the Iran war. Canada's growth outlook would benefit from sustained oil price rises, though inflation would also increase, according to Bank of Nova Scotia.

Private Equity

Major Exits & Acquisitions

EBRD, Morphosis Capital, and CEECAT exited Romanian retailer La Cocos to Schwarz Group in a strategic retail consolidation. American Securities agreed to sell manufacturers CPM Holdings and MW Components to Rosebank Industries for an expected Q2 2026 close. Thoma Bravo is acquiring logistics firm WWEX Group from sellers including CVC Capital Partners and Providence Equity Partners. Charterhouse Capital Partners secured a €1 billion first close for its new European mid-market fund, signaling continued investor appetite for the region.

Portfolio Company Activity

PE-backed Esperion agreed to acquire biopharma firm Corstasis for $75 million upfront with up to $180 million in milestone payments. CCMP Growth-backed Decks & Docks acquired Pro Deck Supply to expand its specialty composite decking distribution footprint. Accel-KKR invested in fleet maintenance software firm Whip Around, backing CEO Noah Hickey's growth strategy. TDR Capital-backed David Lloyd Leisure acquired Aspria, adding 10 upscale member clubs across Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Spain to its portfolio.

Fundraising & Investment Activity

Waterland Private Equity acquired Cooper Turner Beck Group, a provider of safety-critical fastener services for energy, construction, and heavy industries. Arlington Capital sold aerospace parts maker FSG to JF Lehman, completing its exit from the precision forging sector. Ares Management closed an $850 million continuation fund for Convergint Technologies amid a record $240 billion secondaries wave. Bain Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in Swedish distributor Tingstad through its European Private Equity platform.

Industry Insights & Leadership

Brookfield's David Nowak declared "the era of easy returns, easy private equity is over" at PEI Group's NEXUS 2026 summit. New Mountain's Neal Costello noted that acceptance of CVs signals the right time for PE entrants seeking differentiation. Lincoln's Chris Brooks explained how private equity is adapting its tech playbook as AI disrupts the traditional buy-and-build model. Clearlake's José E. Feliciano shared insights on AI disruption, while H&F's Patrick Healy discussed long hold periods as industry challenges at NEXUS 2026.

Strategic Moves & Market Positioning

CCMP entered early-stage sale processes for facilities manager BGIS, which could command 12x EBITDA or approximately $2.2 billion. Ardian agreed to sell its stake in management consulting company Nova Reperta to Tilleghem. Kyip Capital invested in Chiron to develop an outpatient diagnostics platform focused on aggregating diagnostic, surgery, and rehabilitation services nationwide. Trilogy Capital-backed SSRG acquired Elite Residential Concierge to expand its security and risk management business in Calgary.

Industry Evolution

Ex-Coller CEO Sara Macedo joined Emissary Partners as the $5 trillion family office market continues expanding. New State acquired Vast Coworking Group in a carveout from United Franchise Group, with co-founder Jason Anderson continuing as CEO. Oakley Capital made a series of promotions including four new partners within its investment team. Orion, CGF, and Exiro partnered in a $200 million investment in Manitoba's Thompson Mine Complex alongside Vale, forming Exiro Nickel Company for the consortium.

Sector Investment

Sector Investment Trends

Some LPs are signalling reduced interest in the US market under the second Trump administration, with capital potentially flowing to alternative regions. Infrastructure Investor examines the extent of this shift and where investments are heading instead.

Real Estate Investor reports that LADWP plans to deploy $500 million in real estate this year to increase its exposure to the asset class. The firm's pacing plan for 2026 outlines strategic deployment across various property sectors.