Brent crude futures surged to their widest premium over the Middle East Dubai benchmark since 2022, reaching above $6 a barrel after US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) widened dramatically from below $2 last week, reflecting growing supply concerns in the region.

Trading in Middle East crude has become increasingly volatile as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has halted completely. This disruption has created significant uncertainty around supply flows, causing lighter trading volumes even for Oman futures contracts. The situation has been further complicated by surging freight costs as available oil tanker capacity becomes scarce in the crucial waterway.

JPMorgan Chase analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond 21 days, upstream production could be forced to shut down. The bank's Natasha Kaneva and colleagues emphasized that time is running out for the critical shipping lane to reopen before production impacts become unavoidable.