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Market Turmoil and Energy Shock
US stocks slumped to end a volatile week, with soaring oil prices and the specter of energy supply shocks from the war in the Middle East fanning inflation fears. The S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% as of 7:45 a.m. in New York as oil climbs again, fanning concerns that the Middle East war is fueling inflation. European shares headed for their steepest weekly decline since April as the war in Iran showed no sign of nearing a resolution.
Oil futures extended gains with the Middle East conflict in its seventh day and no sign of the critical Strait of Hormuz being reopened to shipping. Crude prices in Europe are now surging as aggressive buying by Asian refiners tightens the global market. A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, according to the IMF.
Dollar Strength and Safe Havens
The dollar is wrapping up its best week in more than a year, rallying as the ultimate safe haven amid the conflict in the Middle East and skyrocketing oil prices. The dollar is among the few major assets to have rallied this week, while traditional safe havens such as Treasuries, the yen, the Swiss franc and gold offered no refuge to investors amid the ongoing conflict.
Goldman Sachs credit strategists say the surge in yield premiums on US investment-grade bonds of insurers, triggered by concerns around exposure to private credit, is "overdone." Meanwhile, BlackRock said it would not buy back more than 5% from investors in its flagship HPS Corporate Lending Fund, facing a similar situation to rival Blackstone.
Private Markets and Deal Making
Robinhood is giving everyday investors access to high-profile private companies like Databricks and Oura through its new fund trading on the NYSE under ticker RVI. However, a modest investment in SpaceX that thrust a niche fund into the limelight has morphed into a monster position, testing the very capacity of exchange-traded funds to hold unlisted assets.
KKR is seeking a $500 million loan to back its acquisition of a majority stake in school operator XCL Education Holdings Pte. Dealmakers are seeing their chances of a record haul of mergers and acquisitions potentially fizzle out before the end of the first quarter due to the Iran war.
Regional Market Impacts
Israel's stocks and currency are rallying after almost a week of war with Iran, even as markets elsewhere retreat amid soaring energy prices. Colombia's local debt this week converted from the worst performing in emerging markets to the leading gainer as the price of its main export, oil, surged.
Asian high-yield dollar bonds are getting disproportionately hit compared with global peers as the escalating Iran conflict underscores the region's reliance on imported energy. Asia's $8 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves are giving central banks more firepower to defend their currencies as the escalating Middle East war drives up energy prices.
Corporate and Sector News
Marvell Technology was upgraded to Buy as outlook signals growth re-acceleration. Ciena was upgraded on cloud data center spending. Okta demand is strong for AI identity security. Holcim was upgraded to "buy" with 19% upside seen after ETS-driven selloff.
Blue Owl Capital has a £36 million ($48 exposure to Century Capital Partners Ltd., a London-based property lender that filed for administration last month. Western Alliance Bancorporation filed a lawsuit against Jefferies Financial Group after being informed that $126.4 million in forbearance payments would not be made.
Policy and Economic Outlook
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbeck calls the employment report a "tough miss" and says it would be a concern if the US sees several months of similar jobs data. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller discusses the potential inflationary impact of war with Iran, saying "this is why we never look at energy prices."
Poland may abstain from interest-rate cuts for as long as the armed conflict in Iran lasts, according to policymakers. The International Energy Agency sees no need yet to release emergency oil stockpiles amid the Middle East crisis, as global oil supplies are plentiful.
Technology and Innovation
Anthropic vows legal fight against Pentagon sanction in AI feud. Nvidia stops H200 chip production. CoreWeave is building a "gigawatt-sized engine for an AI future," according to Oppenheimer. The surge in yield premiums on US investment-grade bonds of insurers was triggered by concerns around exposure to private credit.
Amazon data centers in the Gulf were hit in the first known military strike on a US hyperscaler, rattling regional ambitions to build multibillion-dollar cloud facilities. Toyota supplier Denso makes an $8 billion bid for Japanese chipmaker Rohm as Tokyo seeks to consolidate the sector to compete against China.
Private Equity
Buyouts & Exits
Saber Power, backed by Greenbelt, acquired Bounds Construction, expanding its electrical services footprint. Brydell Partners purchased over 200 homes from Vistry Group in a £75 million bulk deal. Mutares agreed to sell its logistics platform in Time Group to Tawin Holdings in a €100 million exit, while BlackPeak sold its stake in e-commerce logistics provider eu Shipments.com to Austrian Post.
Sector Activity
The active pharmaceutical ingredients space remains hot, attracting capital from Astorg, EQT, TA Associates, and New Mountain Capital. Littlejohn invested in power infrastructure consulting firm GDS Associates, signaling continued interest in energy transition assets.
Fundraising & Secondaries
A consortium including EQT and Eurazeo is shortlisted to manage the European Union’s planned €5 billion technology investment fund. Industry focus is shifting toward DPI as the key metric for fundraising success by 2026. The secondaries market faces uncertainty but players are relying on lessons from past volatile periods.
Venture & Growth Equity
Serent invested in health tech firm Saisystems to accelerate its product roadmap. City Detect, an AI startup helping cities manage urban issues, raised a $13 million Series A. Science Corp., a brain-computer interface company founded by Neuralink alumni, secured a $230 million Series C round.
Large-Ticket Deals
Blackstone and Ares Management deployed approximately $5 billion in private credit to finance Thoma Bravo’s logistics acquisition, highlighting the deepening ties between private equity and direct lending.
Regional & Thematic Focus
A UK government-backed female founder fund faces criticism over its "chaotic" management and perceived second-class status. In Europe, PLD Space outlined a €180 million growth plan for next-generation launch technology. Research identified Northzone as Europe’s most active angel investor in fintech, while analysts flagged 13 Danish startups to watch.
Market Commentary
Venture capitalist Tim Draper discussed the AI boom, Bitcoin’s trajectory, and his strategy of building "human accelerators" during a wide-ranging interview.
Sector Investment
Infrastructure Investment
AlbaCore is targeting €1 billion for its new high-yield infrastructure debt fund, marking the firm's first foray into infrastructure credit. The London-based manager plans to quickly follow this launch with an investment-grade vehicle. Meanwhile, Igneo is positioning itself for growth as Carolyn Gilchrist, the firm's new global head of capital formation, outlines her vision for how a unified investor relations function will support the company's expansion six months into her role.
Real Estate Market Dynamics
Starwood president Jonathan Pollack warned that US policy shifts are "coming home to roost in real estate," citing negative impacts from changes in immigration and tourism numbers on America's largest property market. The mega-manager is also focusing on insurance capital and cloud investments to shape its growth strategy, with Pollack discussing how the firm is balancing forward investment plans amid evolving geopolitical stress. In Asia, Bouwinvest is expanding beyond its home market to accept third-party capital, highlighting the importance of the region in its portfolio and planning new strategies including Korea's multifamily market.
Pension Fund Activity
The Jacksonville Police and Fire Pension Fund expects to reach its target allocation to non-core real estate by 2027, according to its 2026 real estate outlook. Meanwhile, the Italian pension fund INPGI has issued two RFPs targeting €70 million in infrastructure funds, looking to make both local and international investments. These moves reflect continued pension fund appetite for alternative assets as institutions seek to diversify their portfolios.
European Real Estate Deals
London-headquartered Zaga Capital has obtained approximately €210 million for its debut German residential fund, marking a significant entry into the opportunistic real estate market. The fund represents the manager's first major raise and demonstrates continued investor interest in European residential assets despite broader market uncertainties.
Regional Market Perspectives
At the recent PERE Asia Summit, delegates expressed primary concerns about the wider ripple effects of Middle East conflict on real estate markets, though Asia's insulation from global volatility remained a key takeaway. The conference also highlighted overweight appetites for developed markets in the region and identified data center opportunities driven by AI as still being in early stages. These insights from La Caisse's Georg underscore the nuanced regional dynamics shaping investment decisions across Asia's real estate landscape.