The secondaries market is grappling with tech uncertainty and fresh geopolitical turmoil as conflicts in the Middle East and Venezuela disrupt deal activity. Sources told Secondaries Investor that technology disruption has already paused and pulled transactions, with some advisers delaying software continuation vehicle launches and hiring consultants to assess AI risks in portfolio companies.

Beyond tech concerns, regional conflicts are complicating capital flows and due diligence. A Middle East sovereign wealth fund's involvement in a continuation vehicle deal has been disrupted, while energy-related activity faces pressure from oil price spikes following US strikes and Maduro's capture. Despite these challenges, one secondaries buyer noted the market tends to react over months rather than days.

Advisers describe the uncertainty as both a headwind and tailwind - slowing short-term activity while potentially boosting longer-term demand for liquidity solutions. The $300 billion secondaries volume prediction for 2026 may actually strengthen amid regional conflict. While Q2 could see a pause as the market digests Q1 marks affected by tech disruption, secondaries managers remain focused on identifying opportunities, albeit with heightened scrutiny on underwriting and portfolio risks.